Reading NRXP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NRXP free→Reading NRXP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, NRXP is below typical. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.97 NRXP trades at 27× p/s — 2.8× the 10× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $2.14 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 414% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.48x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.02 → $-0.13 (-750.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$288.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$827.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,422.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'low' to 'medium'.
Signal changed from 'None' to 'cautious'.
Valuation label changed from 'None' to 'expensive'.
As of June 16, 2026, confidence rose to medium. The signal changed to cautious. The risk remains elevated, indicating ongoing uncertainty in the stock's performance.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase revenue through public offerings
Public offering increases revenue potential.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Definitive Material Agreement. Underwriting Agreement On June 3, 2026, NRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with BTIG, LLC, as representative of the several underwriters listed in Schedule A thereto (the “ Underwriters ”) in connection with a public offering of an aggregate of 5,714,286 shares (the “ Shares ”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.001 per share (the “ Common Stock ”), by the Comp…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2023-Q1, 2023-Q2, 2023-Q3, 2024-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NRXP NRX PHARMACEUTICALS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on raising capital through public offerings to boost revenue.
Resolve compliance issues with Nasdaq listing rules to maintain listing status.
Focus on improving operating income to enhance financial stability.
Advances: Increase revenue through public offerings
Successful pricing of public offering supports revenue goals.
Threatens: Improve operating income
Failures impact operating income outlook.
Advances: Address Nasdaq listing compliance
KETAFREE approval timeline supports compliance efforts.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the 2025 Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders approved the Amendment No:1 to the Omnibus Incentive Plan (the “ Amendment No. 1 ”) to increase the annual “evergreen” share reserve under the Omnibus Incentive Plan. Amendment No. 1 increased the annual automatic share increase from the lesser of (a) 1% of the total number of shares outstandin…
Other Events. On February 17, 2026, NRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a prospectus supplement (the “Prospectus Supplement”) for an aggregate of $20,000,000 of the Company’s shares (the “Shares”) of common stock, par value $0.001 per share, issuable pursuant to that certain At-The-Market Offering Agreement, as amended (the “Offering Agreement”), with H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC, dated August 14, 2023. Any Shares sold under the Offering Agreement will be issued under the registrati…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Appointment of Chief Operating Officer On January 27, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company appointed Joseph M. Casper, age 75, as the Chief Operating Officer of the Company, effective January 27, 2026. Mr. Casper brings 35 years of experience in the healthcare industry to the Company’s leadership team. Prior to joining the Company, Mr. Casper…
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On January 12, 2026, the Company received a letter from the Listing Qualifications Staff of the Nasdaq notifying the Company that it is no longer in compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rules, which requires the Company to hold an annual meeting of shareholders within twelve months of the end of the Company’s fiscal year end (the “Nasdaq Letter”). The Nasdaq Letter states that the Company has 45 cal…