Reading NIC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NIC free→Reading NIC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NIC free→
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, NIC is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If NIC cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $146.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $147 NIC trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $119 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 24% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 21%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.09 → $2.89 (-6.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$290.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,790.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can change interest rates. This affects how much money banks make. Changes may impact Nicolet's earnings.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows a stronger economy.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers interest rates or keeps them the same. This shows worries about the economy.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NIC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (“Nicolet”) announced its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NIC Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 15 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize and integrate the merger with MidWest One Financial Group, Inc.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The merger with MidWest One Financial Group, Inc. was completed on February 13, 2026. This strategic move is expected to enhance Nicolet's market presence and operational capabilities. The completion of the merger indicates successful execution of this growth priority.
“Nicolet completed its merger with MidWest One Financial Group, Inc.”
“Nicolet announced the merger agreement with MidWest One.”
Expand the common stock repurchase program by $60 million.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Nicolet's Board approved a $60 million increase to the stock repurchase authorization, enhancing capital allocation flexibility. This move aligns with the company's strategy to return value to shareholders, though no specific buyback activity was reported this quarter.
“Board approved a $60 million increase to the stock repurchase authorization.”
Continue to provide consistent dividend payouts to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Nicolet maintained a dividend per share of $0.32 in 2026-Q1, consistent with previous quarters. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, with a slight increase from $0.28 in 2025-Q1, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt investor confidence in Nicolet Bankshares.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth falls below the median growth rate for the sector.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can indicate consumer spending trends. Strong sales may boost bank earnings, while weak sales could raise concerns.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. Effective February 13, 2026 , Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (“Nicolet” or the “Company”) completed its previously announced merger (the “Merger”) with MidWest One Financial Group, Inc. (“MidWest One ”), pursuant to the terms of the Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated October 23, 2025, by and between Nicolet and MidWest One (the “Merger Agreement”). At closing, MidWest One merged with and into Nicolet, with Nicolet surviving the Merger. Immediatel…
of the Current Report on Form 8-K dated October 23, 2025, and filed by Nicolet with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on October 23, 2025 (the “Prior Form 8-K”) reporting the entry into the Merger Agreement is incorporated by reference. Pursuant to the terms and conditions set forth in the Merger Agreement, at the effective time of the Merger (the “Effective Time”), each share of MidWestOne common stock issued and outstanding immediately prior to the Effective Time was converted int…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the Effective Time of the Merger, and in accordance with the terms of the Merger Agreement, the Nicolet Board of Directors was set at twelve members, consisting of eight individuals selected by Nicolet from the directors of Nicolet immediately prior to the Effective Time, and four individuals selected by Nicolet from the directors of MidWest One…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 20, 2026, Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (“Nicolet”) announced its earnings for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this
“Dividend per share of $0.32.”
“Dividend per share of $0.32.”
“Dividend per share of $0.32.”
“Dividend per share of $0.28.”