Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$171.41+1.04%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	176.72M
EPS	—	3.267
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	666.85M
EPS	—	12.18
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	718.31M
EPS	—	13.707

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend payout at $0.32 per share quarterly	The company maintains a dividend payout of $0.32 per share, supporting shareholder returns.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.30 per quarter	Dividend per share: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.32 USD per share per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 78cad5dc-2c6c-4fdf-867d-81f2ef5cd4b6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Earnings per share near $9.78 in FY26	Earnings per share are expected near $9.78 in 2026, showing solid profitability.	Intact	EPS falls below $9.0 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.62 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.78 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20262.62 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 78cad5dc-2c6c-4fdf-867d-81f2ef5cd4b6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete and integrate MidWest One merger	Nicolet Bankshares completed the MidWest One merger, expanding its footprint.	Intact	Merger integration delayed beyond FY26	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported completion of the integration and core systems conversion in 2026-Q3; noninterest expense was $91 million in 2026-Q3 versus $104 million in 2026-Q2, including lower merger-related expense. The conversion milestone is delivered, while realization of the planned cost savings is not quantified in the supplied results. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase stock repurchase authorization by $60 million	Stock repurchase authorization increased by $60 million, enhancing capital allocation.	Intact	No increase or reduction in buyback authorization	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$13.26 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.58B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.26	$578,562,830	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$13.44	$584,144,670	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$13.44	$584,144,670	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$13.42	$581,644,670	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$13.42	$581,644,670	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$13.42	$581,644,670	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$13.42	$581,644,670	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$13.42	$581,644,670	5 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	$13.42	$581,644,670	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$13.42	$581,644,670	5 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-06	$13.42	$581,644,670	5 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$13.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	1
2026-06-01	4	2
2026-07-01	4	2
2026-08-01	4	2
2026-09-01	4	2
2026-10-01	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

StephensOct 23

$190.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerOct 21 · prior Jul 22

$194.00 → $196.00+1.0%

$0$107.80$215.60

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payout at $0.32 per share quarterlyDividend per share: $0.36 per share
Earnings per share near $9.78 in FY26Diluted EPS: $2.62 per share
Complete and integrate MidWest One mergerQualitative condition
Increase stock repurchase authorization by $60 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NIC is a financial-sector business with a durable valuation premium, though the evidence does not establish it as a durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact and recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, with strong recent financial performance and moderate risk.

What's priced into Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.

NIC is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence classifies it as expensive. The expectations gap is modest, while the premium is tied to durability; priced-in fragility is low rather than a broad mix of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong, with earnings beats in July and October 2026, and the recent financial signal is mildly favorable. Management completed the MidWest One integration and core systems conversion, while lower expenses and deposit growth offer some evidence of progress; planned cost savings are not quantified. Near-term risks include a possible guidance cut, sector headwinds if rates fall, and a modest rise in nonperforming assets, though reported loan net charge-offs were negligible.

What Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining operating progress and realizing integration savings without weakening credit quality. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength at sector bellwethers could support sector momentum; falling rates are another stated headwind.