Reading NGNE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NGNE free→Reading NGNE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NGNE free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with NGNE trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 363% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $30, NGNE's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 683× p/s (72.5× the 9× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $6.29 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $69–$70. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 363% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.84x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-1.39. 0 raised, 5 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 156.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$287.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$695.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,237.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare revenue growth picks up, it may help Neurogene's market position.
Confirms:Healthcare revenue growth rises above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare revenue growth is slowing down and is below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NGNE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 12, 2026, Neurogene Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing such results is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Also on May 12, 2026, the Company posted an updated corporate presentation on its website. A copy of the corporate presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$69.00 – $70.00 (median $70.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NGNE Neurogene, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | expensive | high |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Effective as of April 20, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Neurogene Inc. (the “Company”), upon recommendation of the Board's Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee (the "Nominating Committee"), took action pursuant to the Company's Amended and Restated Bylaws to expand the Board to seven directors and appoint Christine Mikail, t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 24, 2026, Neurogene Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release announcing such results is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Also on March 24, 2026, the Company posted an updated corporate presentation on its website. A copy of the corporate presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report o…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 13, 2025, Neurogene Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release announcing such results is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Also on November 13, 2025, the Company posted an updated corporate presentation on its website. A copy of the corporate presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 11, 2025, Neurogene Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release announcing such results is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Also on August 11, 2025, the Company posted an updated corporate presentation on its website. A copy of the corporate presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.…