Reading NEWT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NEWT free→Reading NEWT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NEWT free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is weak, with fragile earnings quality and a volatile management track record. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. The top factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 NEWT trades at 6× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 44% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted -12.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
19 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.48 → $0.47 (-3.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 2.4% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$145.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$344.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,733.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the EPS guidance shows the company is on track for its profit goals. It signals stability in earnings expectations.
Confirms:The company confirms EPS guidance remains between $2.15 and $2.55 for 2026.
Disproves:EPS guidance is lowered below $2.15 for 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NEWT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 12, 2026, the Company issued a press release entitled “NewtekOne, Inc. Declares Dividends on Common Stock and Series B Preferred Shares” (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this report and Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NEWT NewtekOne, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to maintain its EPS guidance range of $2.15-$2.55 for 2026.
The company has set a target of 10% EPS growth for 2027, implying an EPS range of $2.40-$2.80.
The company continues to maintain its dividend per share at $0.19.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company meets its profit targets. It will also reflect the impact of recent economic conditions.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows net income growth compared to Q1.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows a decline in net income compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would affect overall performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth is reported below the median for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the sector.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. It signals financial health.
Confirms:The company confirms the dividend remains at $0.19 per share.
Disproves:The company lowers the dividend below $0.19 per share.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, NewtekOne issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exch…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information required by
Other Events On April 28, 2026, a wholly-owned subsidiary of NewtekOne, Inc. (the “Company”), Newtek Business Services Holdco 6, Inc. (the “NH6 Borrower”), and its wholly-owned subsidiary NBL SPV, LLC (the “SPV Borrower”, and together with the NH6 Borrower, the “Borrowers”), together with the Company as a guarantor thereunder, entered into a Term Loan Agreement (the “Loan Agreement”) with D2 Asset Based Credit Partners, LP, Inc. as the Initial Lender thereunder (the “Initial Lender”) and D2 A…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 6, 2026, NewtekOne issued a press release (the “Press Release”) entitled, “Technological Advances, Including AI, Drive Record Number of Loan Unit Originations for 1Q26,” reporting, inter alia, loan originations for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section…