NewtekOne, Inc. (NEWT)

Q: What's priced into NewtekOne, Inc. (NEWT) stock?

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and the evidence says pricing is justified rather than marked by concentrated fragility. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions are not especially demanding, though the snapshot does not spell out those assumptions in detail.

Q: What does the NewtekOne, Inc. (NEWT) outlook hinge on?

The multi-year thesis depends on meeting 2026 guidance and making progress toward the 2027 EPS growth goal, while sustaining the dividend and expanding loan originations. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts could weigh on financial companies; continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers would provide a more favorable backdrop.

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.43-1.64%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NewtekOne, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	81.63M
EPS	—	0.561
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	304.27M
EPS	$2.15–$2.55	1.887
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	334.57M
EPS	—	2.179

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend at $0.19 per share	The company keeps dividends steady at $0.19 per share.	Intact	Dividend falls below $0.19 per share	Dividend per share: $0.19 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend = $0.19 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20260.19 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3c88fdff-5848-46b0-81f9-64d2200d40b9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS at least $2.15 and up to $2.55 in 2026	A primary condition in NewtekOne, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.15 and <= $2.55 EPS.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.15 or above $2.55 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.47 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.15 and <= $2.55 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20260.47 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3c88fdff-5848-46b0-81f9-64d2200d40b9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS grows 10% to $2.40-$2.80 in 2027	A primary condition in NewtekOne, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.40 and <= $2.80 EPS.	Intact	EPS growth less than 10% or EPS outside $2.40-$2.80 in FY27	Diluted EPS: $0.47 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.40 and <= $2.80 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20260.47 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3c88fdff-5848-46b0-81f9-64d2200d40b9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.52 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-25	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-26	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-27	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-28	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-29	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-30	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-31	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-01	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-02	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-03	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-04	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-05	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-06	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-07	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-08	$2.48	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-09	$2.48	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-10	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-12	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-13	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-14	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-15	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-16	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-17	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-18	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-19	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-20	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-21	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-22	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-23	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-24	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-25	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-26	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-27	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-28	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-29	$2.30	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-30	$2.30	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-31	$2.30	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-01	$2.24	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	5
2026-06-01	2	5
2026-07-01	2	5
2026-08-01	2	5
2026-09-01	2	5
2026-10-01	2	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend at $0.19 per shareDividend per share: $0.19 per share
EPS at least $2.15 and up to $2.55 in 2026Diluted EPS: $0.47 per share
EPS grows 10% to $2.40-$2.80 in 2027Diluted EPS: $0.47 per share

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NewtekOne, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NEWT is a financial company with an earnings-growth and dividend profile, but the evidence points to fragile earnings quality, volatile management, and elevated risk. Its long-term thesis is mixed: recent execution indicators improved, while the overall thesis state remains unclear because there is not enough recent financial-performance history.

What's priced into NewtekOne, Inc.

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and the evidence says pricing is justified rather than marked by concentrated fragility. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions are not especially demanding, though the snapshot does not spell out those assumptions in detail.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has maintained 2026 EPS guidance and reported second-quarter diluted EPS within quarterly guidance; the 2027 goal calls for 10% EPS growth. Loan originations and portfolio diversification are progressing, while the quarterly dividend has remained steady but is rated mixed. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and the recent debt issuance and capital-allocation event add context to an already elevated risk profile.

What NewtekOne, Inc. hinges on