Reading NBTB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NBTB free→Reading NBTB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NBTB free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is neutral and management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The stock's performance hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major financial bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $47 NBTB trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $43 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 11% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.03 → $1.02 (-0.8% / 30d). 3 raised, 4 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 1.9% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$79.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$210.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,217.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Continued growth in net income supports the company's strategy and financial health. A decline could signal issues.
Confirms:Net income for Q2 2026 exceeds $51.1 million reported in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 2026 falls below $51.1 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NBTB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 19, 2026, the Company approved a second-quarter 2026 cash dividend of $0.37 per share. The dividend will be paid on June 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on June 1, 2026. That press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NBTB NBT Bancorp, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing profitability through disciplined execution and margin expansion.
Continue to improve operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Commit to maintaining the dividend per share at $0.37 to provide consistent shareholder returns.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans could mean credit quality problems. Fewer loans show stability.
Confirms:The ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans improves from 0.53% in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Nonperforming loans to total loans ratio worsens beyond 0.53%.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is important. It shows how well the company runs and makes money.
Confirms:Operating income grows year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Operating income growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in net interest margin impact profits. A drop could hurt earnings.
Confirms:Net interest margin for Q2 2026 remains above 3.72% reported in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Net interest margin for Q2 2026 falls below 3.72%.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders. Cutting it could make investors worried.
Confirms one read:The company pays the approved dividend of $0.37 per share on June 15, 2026.
Confirms the other:The company says it will reduce or stop the dividend payment.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below its median could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This impacts overall performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income means the company is making more money. This helps long-term goals.
Confirms:Operating income was over $66.7 million in the Q2 2026 earnings.
Disproves:Operating income was below $47.2 million in the Q2 2026 earnings.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026, NBT Bancorp Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release describing its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. That press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. A conference call will be held at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, April 24, 2026, to review the first quarter 2026 financial results. The audio webcast link, along with the corresponding presentation slides, will be available on the Event Cal…