NBT Bancorp, Inc. (NBTB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$51.15-0.53%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
NBT Bancorp grows net income strongly, from $36.7M to $51.1M in Q1 2026. Operating income rose from $47.2M to $66.7M in the same period. The company maintains a steady dividend of $0.37 per share. Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth and EPS of $4.17 in 2026.
Profit growth could slow if operating income or net income fail to improve. Dividend cuts would signal capital stress. Revenue growth below 5% would disappoint given current expectations.
The price is about 3% above our fair value near $48. Analysts expect roughly 6% revenue growth. Our view aligns with these expectations, seeing moderate growth and stable dividends.
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.37 in any quarter
Breaks if: net income falls below $36.7 million in any quarter going forward
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth opportunity within the financial sector. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong earnings and management's focus on growth and dividends.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation stance on NBTB, with expectations slightly below current performance levels. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news at this time.
Management is on track to increase net income and earnings per share, as well as expand net interest margin and income. Despite a recent run of earnings misses, the overall financial performance remains strong.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. Positive earnings from these companies could support NBTB, while any negative guidance could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has negatively impacted the outlook for NBTB. This miss raises concerns about the company's ability to meet future expectations.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: operating income falls below $47.2 million in any quarter going forward
Breaks if: revenue growth falls below 5% YoY over next 12 months
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NBTB's performance will likely depend on sector trends and management execution. Not investment advice.