NBT Bancorp, Inc. (NBTB)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$52.87+0.15%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NBT Bancorp, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.56 → 4.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	194.41M
EPS	—	1.096
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	759.57M
EPS	—	4.175
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	801.68M
EPS	—	4.566

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend per share at $0.37	The company maintains a steady dividend of $0.37 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.37 in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: dividend per share = $0.37. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.37 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c6eba2b2-2f2c-45c1-94d6-763434785d54. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The quarterly dividend was $0.37 per share in 2026-Q1 and increased by 8.1% to $0.40 per share in 2026-Q3, marking the fourteenth consecutive annual increase. Management is delivering on its dividend growth commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase net income to at least $51.1 million in Q1 2026	NBT Bancorp grows net income strongly, from $36.7M to $51.1M in Q1 2026.	Intact	net income falls below $36.7 million in any quarter going forward	Net income: $53.03M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $51.1 million net income in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 202653,030,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c6eba2b2-2f2c-45c1-94d6-763434785d54. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income increased from $51.1 million in 2026-Q1 to $53.0 million in 2026-Q2, and diluted EPS rose from $0.98 to $1.02. Net interest margin expanded to 3.73% in 2026-Q2, reflecting delivery on earnings growth and margin expansion priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income to reach at least $66.7 million in Q1 2026	Operating income rose from $47.2M to $66.7M in the same period.	Intact	operating income falls below $47.2 million in any quarter going forward	Operating income: $69.116M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $66.7 million operating income in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 202669,116,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue growth near 6% annually	A primary condition in NBT Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 5.8% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 5% YoY over next 12 months	Revenue growth: 4.61% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 5.8% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20264.608705 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c6eba2b2-2f2c-45c1-94d6-763434785d54. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.57

$4.50 → $4.57 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.80B

$0.80B → $0.80B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.50	$797,699,600	7 / 5
2026-07-25	$4.50	$797,699,600	7 / 5
2026-07-26	$4.50	$797,699,600	7 / 5
2026-07-27	$4.50	$797,699,600	7 / 5
2026-07-28	$4.50	$797,699,600	7 / 5
2026-07-29	$4.50	$797,699,600	7 / 5
2026-07-30	$4.50	$797,699,600	7 / 5
2026-07-31	$4.53	$801,019,330	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$4.53	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-02	$4.54	$800,426,500	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-04	$4.54	$800,426,500	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-06	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-07	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-08	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-09	$4.54	$800,426,500	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-12	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-13	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-14	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-15	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-16	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-17	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-18	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-19	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-20	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-21	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-22	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-23	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-24	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-25	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-26	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-27	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-28	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-29	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-30	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-08-31	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-01	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-02	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-03	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-04	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-05	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-06	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-07	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-08	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-09	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-10	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-11	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-12	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-13	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-14	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-15	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-16	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-17	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-18	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-19	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-20	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-21	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-22	$4.54	$800,426,500	6 / 5
2026-09-23	$4.56	$801,509,833	6 / 5
2026-09-24	$4.56	$801,509,833	6 / 5
2026-09-25	$4.56	$801,509,833	6 / 5
2026-09-26	$4.56	$801,509,833	6 / 5
2026-09-27	$4.56	$801,509,833	6 / 5
2026-09-28	$4.56	$801,509,833	6 / 5
2026-09-29	$4.56	$801,509,833	6 / 5
2026-09-30	$4.56	$801,509,833	6 / 5
2026-10-01	$4.56	$801,509,833	6 / 5
2026-10-02	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-03	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-04	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-05	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-06	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-07	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-08	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-09	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-10	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-11	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-12	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-13	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-14	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-15	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-16	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-17	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-18	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-19	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-20	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-21	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-22	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-23	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5
2026-10-24	$4.57	$801,676,500	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	4
2026-06-01	3	4
2026-07-01	3	5
2026-08-01	2	5
2026-09-01	2	5
2026-10-01	2	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend per share at $0.37Dividend per share: $0.37 per share
Increase net income to at least $51.1 million in Q1 2026Net income: $53.03M
Operating income to reach at least $66.7 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $69.116M
Achieve revenue growth near 6% annuallyRevenue growth: 4.61%

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NBT Bancorp, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NBTB is a regional bank with a measured earnings-growth and dividend-growth thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is intact, but confidence has moved from high to medium after a recent earnings miss and a CEO transition.

What's priced into NBT Bancorp, Inc.

Valuation is tagged as justified, with expectations broadly aligned with the evidence and no concentrated fragility flags. NBTB carries a modest premium to peers, while the overall value assessment is neutral.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: net income, diluted earnings per share, and net interest margin improved from the first to the second quarter of 2026. Management is on track with earnings growth, dividend growth, and share repurchases, but the recent earnings miss and a run of misses leave execution risk; the broader financial-sector backdrop is also a headwind.

What NBT Bancorp, Inc. hinges on

The near-term thesis would weaken if NBTB cuts guidance or if rate cuts weigh on financial-sector results. It would gain support if sector peers continue to report stronger earnings and raise guidance, while the key company-level test is whether NBTB sustains earnings and margin progress through the CEO transition.