Reading MVIS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MVIS free→Reading MVIS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MVIS free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyScientific & Technical InstrumentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If the Fed starts cutting rates, that would be a tailwind for MVIS and other Tech names. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.36, MVIS's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 33× p/s (8.9× the 4× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~173% near-term growth vs our ~-27% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.13 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 173% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -27%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.67x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.03. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
2 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$380.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$807.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,605.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from expensive to full. Risk fell. The sector backdrop rose. Recent financial performance remained weak. Earnings quality stayed loss-making. Management remained volatile and capital unfriendly.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit shows better cost control and efficiency. This is key for the company.
Confirms:Gross profit margin is up from last quarter.
Disproves:Gross profit margin decreases or remains flat compared to the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MVIS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On June 12, 2026, the Company submitted an application to transfer the listing of the Company’s Common Stock from The Nasdaq Global Market to The Nasdaq Capital Market. The Company’s transfer application is subject to review and approval by the staff of the Nasdaq Stock Market (“Nasdaq”). As previously disclosed in the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on January 16, 2026, the Company…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electronic Equipment & Instruments.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MVIS MicroVision, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 0 of 100 | full | elevated |
KEYS Keysight Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROP Roper Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TDY Teledyne Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
TRMB Trimble Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic partnerships and market expansion.
Continue efforts to improve gross profit through cost management and operational efficiency.
Announce and leverage strategic partnerships to drive growth and market presence.
Why it matters: A new partnership could boost growth and validate management's strategy. It is a key focus for the company.
Confirms:A press release will confirm a partnership with a big tech company.
Disproves:No partnership announcement by the next earnings date on August 13, 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 12, 2026, MicroVision, Inc. (the “Company”) and the Agents (as defined herein) entered into Amendment No. 1 (“Amendment No. 1”) to that certain At-The-Market Issuance Sales Agreement, dated March 5, 2024 (the “Sales Agreement”), by and among the Company and Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Mizuho Securities USA LLC and Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC (collectively, the “Agents”), pursuant to which the Company may offer and sell, from time to ti…
Regulation FD. The information in this Current Report is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. On June 10, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the sign…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information in this Current Report is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. On May 13, 2026, MicroVision, Inc. issue…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information in this Current Report is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. On March 4, 2026, MicroVision, Inc. issu…