Reading MNKD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MNKD free→Reading MNKD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MNKD free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, MNKD is typical in valuation. Peer multiples imply a price about 103% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If MNKD cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.00 MNKD trades at 36× p/e — 2.2× the 17× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $1.83 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $6.00–$11. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 118% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 35%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.81x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.01 → $0.01 (-6.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 191.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$214.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$546.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,329.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its financial losses. Investors look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows a smaller loss than last quarter. This means better financial health.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a larger loss than last quarter, suggesting continued struggles.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Concerns about bankruptcy pose significant risk to growth.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, MannKind Corporation issued a press release, a copy of which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$6.00 – $11.00 (median $9.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MNKD MannKind Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding commercial capabilities through strategic acquisitions like scPharmaceuticals.
Aim to achieve the revenue guidance of $349 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: If health care revenue growth speeds up, it could help MannKind's performance. This would signal a better market environment.
Confirms:Health care revenue growth shows a rise back toward 10% year over year.
Disproves:Health care revenue growth continues to slow below current levels.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, MannKind Corporation issued a press release, a copy of which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025, MannKind Corporation issued a press release, a copy of which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 24, 2025 MannKind Corporation (“MannKind”) entered into a first amendment (“First Amendment”) to the global license and collaboration agreement dated September 3, 2018 (the “License Agreement”) with United Therapeutics Corporation (“United Therapeutics”). The First Amendment memorializes the exercise of United Therapeutics’ option to expand the scope of the products covered by the License Agreement to include an additional development prod…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Agreement and Plan of Merger On August 24, 2025, MannKind Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“ Parent ”), Seacoast Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Purchaser ”), and scPharmaceuticals Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Target ”), entered into a definitive Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”), pursuant to which Parent, through Purchaser, will commence a tender offer (the…