Reading MMSI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MMSI free→
Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$67.68+1.11%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Instruments & Supplies
- Market cap
- $3.97B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-14
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $67.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$71.49consensus
Range $67.61 – $94.73
vs price: -5% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$139.33consensus
Range $109.59 – $235.45
vs price: -51% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $67 MMSI trades at 19× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $72 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $78–$107. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
19.4x
peer 19.9x · own history 25.2x
Premium
1.0x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
-7%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$71.68
range $68.37 – $94.86
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
91st pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
72nd pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -8.9% / 30d, n=9for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.06 → $0.96 (-8.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 9 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$118.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$296.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,718.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q2 operating income growth to continue
Why it matters: Steady growth in operating income shows that the company manages costs well. It also shows good efficiency.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 operating income rose year over year, exceeding $44.2M.
Disproves:Q2 operating income declines or stays below $44.2M.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MMSI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ISRG, MDLN, and BDX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting MMSI and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MMSI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If MMSI beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +13% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If MMSI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ISRG, MDLN, and BDX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping MMSI and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-1929d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”) of Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) held on May 13, 2026, the Company’s shareholders approved (i) the Merit Medical Systems, Inc. 2026 Equity Incentive Plan (the “EIP”) and (ii) the Merit Medical Systems, Inc. 2026 Employee Stock Purchase Plan (the “ESPP”). The Company’s…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.