Reading ATRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATRC free→Reading ATRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATRC free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair), and the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If ATRC cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 ATRC trades at 3× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $29 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $44–$55. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -14.02x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.03 → $0.02 (-31.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$151.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$422.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,902.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A return to faster revenue growth in the healthcare sector could benefit AtriCure. It may signal improving market conditions.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is close to 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ATRC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the AtriCure, Inc. (the “Company”) 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 18, 2026 (“Annual Meeting”), the stockholders of the Company approved an amendment to the AtriCure, Inc. 2023 Stock Incentive Plan (the “Amended 2023 Plan”). The 2023 Stock Incentive Plan was previously approved and amended to increase the number of shares availab…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$44.00 – $55.00 (median $54.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Supplies.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ATRC AtriCure, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | elevated |
MDLN MEDLINE INC | — | full | moderate |
WST West Pharmaceutical Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COO Cooper Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ALGN Align Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims for full year 2026 revenue between $600 million and $610 million.
Management aims for full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA between $80 million and $82 million.
Management aims to achieve positive net income for the full year 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, AtriCure, Inc. issued a press release regarding its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company held a conference call on May 5, 2026 at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time to discuss the financial results. A copy of the press release, as corrected, is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026 , AtriCure, Inc. issued a press release regarding its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company will hold a conference call on May 5, 2026 at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time to discuss the financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026 , AtriCure, Inc. issued a press release regarding its financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year ended December 31, 2025. The Company will hold a conference call on February 17, 2026 at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time to discuss the financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 12, 2026, AtriCure issued a press release announcing its preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.