AtriCure, Inc. (ATRC)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$58.97-0.56%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AtriCure, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.42 → 0.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	160.18M
EPS	—	0.013
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	606.18M
EPS	$0.24–$0.32non-GAAP $0.05–$0.13	0.108
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	679.99M
EPS	—	0.42

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $80M-$82M Adjusted EBITDA in 2026	The company targets positive net income and $80M-$82M adjusted EBITDA this year.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $80M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $17.1 million in 2026-Q1 to $27.3 million in 2026-Q2. Management projects full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $85 million to $89 million, up from prior guidance of $80 million to $82 million. The trajectory shows delivering improvement toward this target. Delivery assessment Oct 21, 2026
Achieve positive net income in 2026	The company targets positive net income and $80M-$82M adjusted EBITDA this year.	Intact	net income remains negative for full year 2026	Net income: $8.955M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income > 0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 27, 20268,955,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a77f554d-0648-4e44-9af9-ed0a7d71cc32. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income per share improved from breakeven $0.00 in 2026-Q1 to $0.18 in 2026-Q2. Management expects full year 2026 net income per share between $0.05 and $0.13, indicating delivery of positive net income is underway and trajectory is improving. Delivery assessment Oct 21, 2026
Achieve $600M-$610M revenue in 2026	A primary condition in AtriCure, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $600M revenue.	Intact	revenue falls below $600M in FY26	Revenue: $153.604M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $600M revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 27, 2026153,604,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a77f554d-0648-4e44-9af9-ed0a7d71cc32. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $141.2 million in 2026-Q1 to $153.6 million in 2026-Q2 (+8.7%). Management projects full year 2026 revenue of approximately $602 million to $610 million, consistent with prior guidance. The trajectory is delivering growth aligned with this target. Delivery assessment Oct 21, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.42

$0.35 → $0.42 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.68B

$0.68B → $0.68B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.35	$678,340,260	8 / 9
2026-07-25	$0.45	$679,270,990	6 / 9
2026-07-26	$0.45	$679,270,990	6 / 9
2026-07-27	$0.43	$679,237,660	8 / 9
2026-07-28	$0.43	$679,237,660	8 / 9
2026-07-29	$0.43	$679,237,660	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$0.43	$679,629,360	8 / 10
2026-07-31	$0.43	$679,629,360	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$0.43	$679,629,360	9 / 10
2026-08-02	$0.43	$679,629,360	9 / 10
2026-08-03	$0.43	$679,629,360	9 / 10
2026-08-04	$0.43	$679,629,360	9 / 10
2026-08-05	$0.43	$679,629,360	9 / 10
2026-08-06	$0.43	$679,629,360	9 / 10
2026-08-07	$0.42	$679,704,671	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$0.43	$679,629,360	9 / 10
2026-08-09	$0.43	$679,629,360	9 / 10
2026-08-10	$0.43	$679,629,360	9 / 10
2026-08-11	$0.43	$679,629,360	9 / 10
2026-08-12	$0.43	$679,629,360	9 / 10
2026-08-13	$0.43	$679,629,360	9 / 10
2026-08-14	$0.42	$679,704,671	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$0.42	$679,704,671	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$0.42	$679,704,671	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$0.42	$679,704,671	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$0.42	$679,704,671	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$0.42	$679,704,671	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$0.42	$679,744,671	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$0.42	$679,744,671	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$0.42	$679,744,671	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$0.42	$679,744,671	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$0.42	$679,744,671	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$0.42	$679,743,471	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$0.42	$679,823,471	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$0.42	$679,803,471	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$0.42	$679,803,471	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$0.42	$679,803,471	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$0.42	$679,803,471	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$0.42	$679,803,471	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$0.42	$679,804,671	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$0.42	$679,804,671	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$0.42	$679,804,671	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$0.42	$679,804,671	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$0.42	$679,432,444	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$0.42	$679,432,444	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$0.42	$679,432,444	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$0.42	$679,988,000	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$0.42	$679,988,000	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$0.42	$679,988,000	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$0.42	$679,988,000	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	2
2026-06-01	7	2
2026-07-01	8	2
2026-08-01	8	2
2026-09-01	8	2
2026-10-01	8	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $80M-$82M Adjusted EBITDA in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve positive net income in 2026Net income: $8.955M
Achieve $600M-$610M revenue in 2026Revenue: $153.604M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AtriCure, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ATRC is a growth-oriented medical technology business with improving profitability, but it is not yet consistently profitable. Its long-term thesis is intact, with management priorities on track and recent financial performance strong.

What's priced into AtriCure, Inc.

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a sizable premium and evidence that expectations include a re-rating, meaning investors are assigning the business a higher valuation. The evidence does not show that the full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulent conditions is priced in; the model’s confidence in this assessment is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA have increased, and management has raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook while keeping revenue guidance consistent. Management also expects positive full-year net income, though the business is currently described as loss-making; a guidance cut remains a meaningful risk despite a low near-term miss estimate.

What AtriCure, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on management delivering its 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and positive net income goals while sustaining recent performance. Near term, weaker jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while strong results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.