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Warby Parker, Inc. (WRBY)
NYSEHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$25.16-4.62%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 189% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If WRBY cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Instruments & Supplies
- Market cap
- $3.25B
- Employees
- 4,036
- IPO date
- 2021-08-24
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$8.70consensus
Range $7.34 – $15.79
vs price: +189% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$32.78consensus
Range $29.05 – $106.84
vs price: -23% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $26, WRBY's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 79× p/e (4.0× the 20× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~200% near-term growth vs our ~12% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $8.79 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $20–$34. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
79.5x
peer 19.9x · own history —
Premium
4.0x peer
Growth the price needs
200%
our forecast 12%
Our fair value
$8.79
range $7.35 – $16.46
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 200% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
72nd pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 78.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
99th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral9 analysts, 69% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.12 → $0.12 (-1.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 8 cut, 9 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 69% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.4% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$286.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$659.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,226.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-124d agoInvesting.com
Director's stock sale raises concerns about leadership commitment.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ISRG, MDLN, and BDX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting WRBY and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If WRBY raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for WRBY and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If WRBY cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ISRG, MDLN, and BDX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping WRBY and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Warby Parker Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securitie…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+5.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.