Reading WRBY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WRBY free→Reading WRBY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WRBY free→
NYSEHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 189% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If WRBY cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $26, WRBY's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 79× p/e (4.0× the 20× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~200% near-term growth vs our ~12% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $8.79 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $20–$34. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 200% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 78.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.12 → $0.12 (-1.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 8 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 69% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$286.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$659.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,226.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Director's stock sale raises concerns about leadership commitment.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Warby Parker Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securitie…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$20.00 – $34.00 (median $30.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-22
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Supplies.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WRBY Warby Parker, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MDLN MEDLINE INC | — | full | moderate |
WST West Pharmaceutical Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COO Cooper Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ALGN Align Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Warby Parker plans to open 50 new stores by the end of 2026.
Warby Parker aims for 10% to 12% revenue growth for the full year 2026 compared to 2025.
Warby Parker announced a $100 million share repurchase program to enhance shareholder value.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 26, 2026, Warby Parker Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Sec…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 4, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Warby Parker Inc. (the “ Company ”) appointed Adrian Mitchell as Chief Financial Officer of the Company, effective as of February 10, 2026 (the “ Effective Date ”). On the Effective Date, Mr. Mitchell will also assume the roles of principal financial officer and principal accounting off…
Other Events On February 26, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program to purchase up to $100.0 million of the Company’s Class A common stock (the “ Share Repurchase Program ”). Repurchases under the Share Repurchase Program may be made in the open market, in privately negotiated transactions, or otherwise, with the amount and timing of repurchases to be determined at the Company’s discretion, depending on market conditions and corporate nee…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 6, 2025, Warby Parker Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the…