Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$93.30-0.68%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Merit Medical Systems, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.61 → 4.61 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	425.03M
EPS	—	1.135
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.64B
EPS	About $0.03non-GAAP	4.302
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.74B
EPS	—	4.612

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS at or above $4.01 for FY26	The company raised its EPS guidance to $4.01-$4.15 for 2026.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $4.01 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross profit at or above $184.8 million	A supporting condition in Merit Medical Systems, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=184.8 million USD.	Intact	Gross profit falls below $172 million in next 4 quarters	Gross profit: $215.166M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=184.8 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 2026215,166,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b1a49129-c8ee-4e82-94a5-c21dd4607e23. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Non-GAAP operating margin near 19.7%	A primary condition in Merit Medical Systems, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=19.7%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 19.0% in next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 7.5% YoY	A primary condition in Merit Medical Systems, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7.5% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7.5% in FY26	Revenue growth: 9.51% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20269.512318 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b1a49129-c8ee-4e82-94a5-c21dd4607e23. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.61

$4.40 → $4.61 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.74B

$1.72B → $1.74B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.40	$1,718,101,610	9 / 10
2026-07-25	$4.40	$1,718,101,610	9 / 10
2026-07-26	$4.40	$1,718,101,610	9 / 10
2026-07-27	$4.40	$1,717,475,253	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$4.40	$1,718,101,610	9 / 10
2026-07-29	$4.40	$1,718,101,610	9 / 10
2026-07-30	$4.40	$1,717,475,253	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$4.40	$1,718,101,610	9 / 10
2026-08-01	$4.54	$1,727,314,994	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$4.61	$1,735,903,940	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$4.61	$1,735,903,940	10 / 11
2026-08-04	$4.61	$1,735,903,940	10 / 11
2026-08-05	$4.61	$1,735,926,503	7 / 9
2026-08-06	$4.61	$1,735,926,503	7 / 9
2026-08-07	$4.61	$1,735,926,503	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$4.61	$1,735,926,503	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$4.61	$1,735,903,940	10 / 11
2026-08-10	$4.61	$1,735,926,503	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$4.61	$1,735,926,503	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$4.61	$1,735,926,503	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$4.61	$1,735,926,503	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$4.61	$1,735,926,503	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$4.61	$1,735,926,503	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$4.61	$1,735,926,503	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$4.61	$1,735,926,503	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$4.61	$1,735,926,503	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$4.61	$1,736,151,267	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$4.61	$1,735,778,540	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$4.61	$1,735,805,812	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	2
2026-06-01	9	2
2026-07-01	9	2
2026-08-01	9	2
2026-09-01	9	2
2026-10-01	9	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS at or above $4.01 for FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross profit at or above $184.8 millionGross profit: $215.166M
Non-GAAP operating margin near 19.7%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth at or above 7.5% YoYRevenue growth: 9.51%

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Merit Medical Systems, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a medical-device growth business with a multi-year view that depends on sustained revenue growth and margin improvement. The thesis is intact, though its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.

What's priced into Merit Medical Systems, Inc.

The valuation evidence points to MMSI being cheap versus peers, while the priced-in tag says expectations are justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting results may need to stay solid to support the current view.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term fundamentals are strong: second-quarter revenue rose to $418.8 million, with 9% organic, constant-currency growth excluding divestitures, and operating margins improved year over year. Management’s revenue and margin priorities are on track, but a recent COO transition and a history of a deep earnings miss are worth monitoring.

What Merit Medical Systems, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on maintaining growth and margin progress without reversing the recent guidance increase. Weakening job growth could raise recession concerns, while continued strong results from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.