Reading MDXG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MDXG free→Reading MDXG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MDXG free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.68 MDXG trades at 12× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $7.28 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 49% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.02 → $-0.03 (-244.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$128.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$422.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,124.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the company is doing now and in the future.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth getting better than in past quarters.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows lower revenue or profits than in past quarters.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MDXG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026, MiMedx Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”), issued a press release (the “ Earnings Press Release ”) announcing its results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the Earnings Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition”, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, and shall not be dee…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MDXG MiMedx Group, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Implement cost reduction to streamline operations and reduce expenses.
Lowered full-year 2026 net sales expectations due to market disruption.
Aim for adjusted EBITDA to be approximately breakeven for full year 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift for MiMedx and the sector.
Confirms:Health Care sector revenue growth moves back toward 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth is still under 10%. This shows it is slowing down.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On April 14, 2026, MiMedx Group, Inc. (the “Company”) instituted a cost reduction initiative intended to prioritize growth opportunities, streamline operations and significantly reduce operating expenses. As part of these changes Ricci Whitlow’s position of Chief Operating Officer was eliminated and she departed from the Company immediately. Ms. Whi…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 25, 2026, MiMedx Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”), issued a press release (the “ Earnings Press Release ”) announcing its results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Earnings Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition”, including Exhibit 99.1 att…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2025 , MiMedx Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”), issued a press release (the “ Earnings Press Release ”) announcing its results for the quarter that ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the Earnings Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition”, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2025 , MiMedx Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”), issued a press release (the “ Earnings Press Release ”) announcing its results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the Earnings Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition”, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, and shall not…