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MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX)
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$9.84+4.13%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, MAX is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 70% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Internet Content & Information
- Market cap
- $510.89M
- Employees
- 147
- IPO date
- 2020-10-05
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$33.11consensus
Range $19.05 – $44.54
vs price: -70% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$10.69consensus
Range $10.20 – $26.74
vs price: -8% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $9.84 MAX trades at 3× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $32 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $11–$12. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
2.7x
peer 12.1x · own history —
Premium
0.2x peer
Growth the price needs
-70%
our forecast -27%
Our fair value
$32.31
range $17.71 – $44.54
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 70% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -27%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
65th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated fragile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
16th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +9.6% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.29 → $0.32 (+9.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.2% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$222.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$441.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,770.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for sector performance improving relative to peers
Why it matters: Better performance may mean a recovery in the Communication Services sector. This would help MAX.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector performance improves compared to peers like GOOG and META.
Disproves:Sector performance continues to lag behind peers.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MAX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting MAX and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MAX and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If MAX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If MAX cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping MAX and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-181mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (d) On May 15, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of MediaAlpha, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Lauren StClair as a member of the Board, filling the existing vacancy in Class I of the Board. Ms. StClair was also appointed as a member of the Company’s Audit Committee. Since March 2025, Ms. StClair has served as Chief Financial Officer of Slic…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.