MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX)

NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.90-4.11%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MediaAlpha, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	330.68M
EPS	—	0.293
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.31B
EPS	—	1.41
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.43B
EPS	—	1.167

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA grows at least 19% year over year in Q2 2026	Profit margins and EBITDA are also expected to grow 19% year over year.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 15% YoY in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 19% year over year in Q2 2026	Profit margins and EBITDA are also expected to grow 19% year over year.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 11.7% in Q2 2026	Revenue growth: 25.93% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=19% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202625.932947 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 339a8448-ce65-46c7-8875-73942df51f66. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share repurchase program expands to $100 million	The company expanded its buyback program to $100 million.	Intact	Buyback program is reduced or canceled before end of 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.38B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,381,004,000	2 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,381,003,830	2 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,381,003,830	2 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,381,003,830	2 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,381,003,830	2 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,381,003,830	2 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,390,726,140	2 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,410,148,889	3 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,390,726,140	2 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,390,726,140	2 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,390,726,140	2 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,390,726,140	2 / 7
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,390,726,140	2 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,410,148,889	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,405,811,860	2 / 7
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,410,148,889	3 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,405,811,860	2 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,410,148,889	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,410,148,889	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,410,148,889	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,410,148,889	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,410,148,889	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,410,148,889	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,410,148,889	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,410,148,889	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,423,933,300	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,423,933,300	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,423,933,300	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,423,933,300	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,423,933,300	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,425,526,621	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,425,871,065	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,425,871,065	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,425,871,065	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,425,871,065	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,425,871,065	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,425,871,065	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,425,871,065	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,425,871,110	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,425,871,110	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,425,871,110	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,425,871,110	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,425,871,110	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,425,871,110	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,425,871,110	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,425,871,110	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,425,871,110	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,425,871,110	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,425,871,110	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,425,871,110	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,425,871,110	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	6	2
2026-07-01	5	2
2026-08-01	5	3
2026-09-01	5	3
2026-10-01	5	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 14

$10.50New observation · no comparable prior

$0$5.78$11.55

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA grows at least 19% year over year in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows at least 19% year over year in Q2 2026Revenue growth: 25.93%
Share repurchase program expands to $100 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MediaAlpha, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MAX is an earnings-improvement story with recent strong results, rather than a clearly established durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and the risk level remains elevated.

What's priced into MediaAlpha, Inc.

Valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says MAX is cheap versus peers, while another shows a 21% premium to peers. The model has low confidence, and its expectations-gap reading is negative, so the pricing case is not clear-cut; no fragility gates are active.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, management is making progress on profitability: net income rose between the first and second quarters of 2026, while operating income remained positive. Revenue rose modestly, but adjusted EBITDA dipped quarter over quarter, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. The next call remains important because a guidance cut is flagged as a meaningful risk, despite a quiet near-term risk tier and a 23% miss probability.

What MediaAlpha, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on MAX sustaining revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth while continuing to improve profitability. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while Fed rate cuts or continued strong results and higher guidance from sector leaders could support sector momentum. The recent CFO transition and M&A agreement add uncertainty, but the evidence here does not describe their business impact.