Reading LYEL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LYEL free→Reading LYEL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LYEL free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Peer multiples imply a price about 145% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.44. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for LYEL right now, so treat our $3.74 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $44–$49. Not investment advice.
$44.00 – $49.00 (median $45.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 263% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -60%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.54x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-2.03 → $-2.03 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 202.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$276.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$822.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,899.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If health care revenue growth speeds up, it could help Lyell's performance.
Confirms:Health care revenue growth returns to near 10% or higher.
Disproves:Health care revenue growth continues to slow below current levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LYEL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Lyell Immunopharma, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02, including the attached Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or other…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LYEL Lyell Immunopharma Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | expensive | high |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ensure current cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities are sufficient to meet needs into Q3 2027.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management has expressed confidence in maintaining cash sufficiency into Q3 2027. However, the financials show a net income loss of $24.15M and operating income loss of $44.26M in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges in achieving this priority. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“Lyell believes that its current cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities balances will be sufficient to meet working capital and capital expenditure needs into the third quarter of 2027.”
Lower net cash use in 2025 to between $155M and $160M, excluding a $40M upfront payment.
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Management aimed to reduce net cash use to between $155M and $160M for 2025. However, the financials show a net income loss of $140.72M in 2025-Q4, suggesting limited progress towards this goal. Persistent statement, narrow delivery so far.
“Lyell now expects net cash use in 2025 to be between $155 million and $160 million, excluding the $40 million upfront payment from the transaction.”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 12, 2026, Lyell Immunopharma, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02, including the attached Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exch…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On March 6, 2026, the Board of Directors of Lyell Immunopharma, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the appointment of Smital Shah as the Company’s Chief Financial and Business Officer and principal financial officer, effective March 9, 2026. Lynn Seely, M.D., the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, previously served as interim principal fi…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 12, 2025, Lyell Immunopharma, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02, including the attached Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”)…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 31, 2025, the Board of Directors of Lyell Immunopharma, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Lynn Seely, M.D., the Company’s President, Chief Executive Officer and principal executive officer and a director of the Company, as the Company’s interim principal financial officer, and appointed Veronica Sanchez Bulis, the Company’s Vice President,…