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LENSAR, Inc. (LNSR)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$6.18+8.04%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 63% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Market cap
- $69.24M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2020-11-12
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$16.88consensus
Range $13.88 – $19.88
vs price: -63% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$29.43consensus
Range $24.29 – $34.57
vs price: -79% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $5.72 LNSR trades at 1× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $18 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.5x
peer 2.9x · own history —
Premium
0.5x peer
Growth the price needs
-68%
our forecast 5%
Our fair value
$17.67
range $14.59 – $20.76
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 68% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
71st pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted -0.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
13th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
1 analysts, 100% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.27. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme biologics/biosimilars.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$211.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$391.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,179.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for sector revenue growth speeding up again.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the health care sector picks up, it could benefit LENSAR. It may indicate a broader recovery in the industry.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Health care revenue growth is speeding up again. This shows strength in the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth keeps slowing down. This shows weakness in the sector.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LNSR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ABT, SYK, and MDT keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting LNSR and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If LNSR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-08), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If LNSR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-08), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ABT, SYK, and MDT start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping LNSR and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If LNSR misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2919d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 25, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of LENSAR, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Michael A. Rossi to serve as the Company’s Interim Chief Financial Officer and principal financial officer, effective as of May 29, 2026. Mr. Rossi, 52, previously served as Chief Financial Officer of Access Vascular, Inc., an early commercial stage medi…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-11 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.