Reading IRIX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IRIX free→Reading IRIX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IRIX free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 86% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. If IRIX cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.18 IRIX trades at 0× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $8.15 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 86% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.85x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.02 → $-0.01 (+50.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$165.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$609.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,200.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If health care revenue growth speeds up, it may help IRIDEX's performance. A strong sector can lift all companies.
Confirms:Health care revenue growth speeds up to 10% or more.
Disproves:Health care revenue growth keeps slowing down below current levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IRIX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 19, 2026, IRIDEX Corporation issued a press release discussing its financial results for its first fiscal quarter ended April 4, 2026. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Ac…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IRIX IRIDEX Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to achieve cash flow breakeven and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2025.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite the plan to achieve cash flow breakeven in 2025, cash from operating activities was negative at -$1.34M in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows limited progress towards breakeven.
“the Company plans to achieve cash flow breakeven in the fourth quarter and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2025”
“The Company plans to achieve cash flow breakeven and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2025 on revenue generation consistent with 2024.”
The company reaffirms its annual revenue guidance for 2026 between $51 million and $53 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $11.8M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the annual target of $51M-$53M. The reaffirmation suggests confidence, but delivery remains to be seen.
The company expects adjusted operating expenses for 2026 to be between $19 million and $19.5 million.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a target for adjusted operating expenses between $19M and $19.5M for 2026. With operating income at -$324K in 2026-Q1, controlling expenses will be crucial to meet this target.
“For 2026 adjusted operating expenses, which exclude depreciation and amortization, and stock compensation, are expected to be in the range of $19 million to $19.5 million.”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 26, 2026, IRIDEX Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release discussing its financial results for its fourth fiscal quarter ended January 3, 2026. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing un…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 9, 2026, IRIDEX Corporation (the “Company”) and SFIII Hellyer, LLC and SFIII FOS Hellyer Holding, LLC (the “Landlord”) entered into a triple net lease (the “Lease”) pursuant to which the Company will lease office space located at 5215 Hellyer Avenue in San Jose, California (the “Leased Space”) as the Company’s new corporate headquarters. The Leased Space consists of approximately 30,784 square feet. The Lease term is anticipated to commence…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 12, 2026, IRIDEX Corporation (the "Company") announced its preliminary, unaudited operational and financial results for its fourth fiscal quarter and full fiscal year ended January 3, 2026. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or inco…
“the Company is reaffirming its nnual revenue guidance for the full year 2026 of between $51 million and $53 million.”
“The Company currently forecasts 2026 revenue of between $51 million and $53 million.”