Reading IONS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IONS free→Reading IONS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IONS free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $73.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $74 IONS trades at 13× p/s — 1.3× the 9× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $60 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $95–$130. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 22% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 50%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.78x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.87 → $-0.87 (+0.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$109.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$278.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,945.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends will indicate if Ionis can achieve its 20% growth target.
Confirms:Total revenue growth reported above 20% year over year for Q2.
Disproves:Total revenue growth reported below 10% year over year for Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IONS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Director — Ludwig N. Hantson: Dr. Ludwig N. Hantson was appointed as a member of the Board of Directors.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$95.00 – $130.00 (median $110.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-04-30
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ionis aims to grow total revenue by approximately 20% year over year in 2026.
Ionis targets DAWNZERA product sales, net in North America, to reach $110-120 million in 2026.
Ionis has increased its annual TRYNGOLZA peak net sales guidance to over $2 billion for sHTG.
Why it matters: Sales figures will show if Ionis is on track to meet its $110-120M goal.
Confirms:DAWNZERA sales reported above $110M for Q2.
Disproves:DAWNZERA sales reported below $90M for Q2.
Why it matters: The new CEO's strategy may shift company priorities and affect revenue growth.
Confirms one read:The new CEO will share positive news about the growth plan soon.
Confirms the other:Analysts or investors may give negative feedback about the new CEO's plan.
Why it matters: Sales updates will show how close TRYNGOLZA is to its >$2B sales goal.
Confirms:TRYNGOLZA sales reported above $500M for Q2.
Disproves:TRYNGOLZA sales reported below $300M for Q2.
Other Events. On May 28, 2026, Ionis announced that its partner, GSK, reported positive pivotal data for bepirovirsen, an investigational ASO for the treatment of CHB. Results from the two Phase 3 trials, B-Well 1 and B-Well 2, were simultaneously published in the New England Journal of Medicine and presented at the European Association for the Study of the Liver (“ EASL ”) congress. GSK licensed bepirovirsen from Ionis and the two companies have collaborated on its development. Pooled data f…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. In addition to disclosing results that are determined in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“ GAAP ”), the Company also discloses pro forma or non-GAAP results of operations, which are adjusted from GAAP to exclude non-cash compensation expense related to eq…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) Departure of B. Lynne Parshall from the Board of Directors On March 3, 2026, B. Lynne Parshall, a member of the Board of Directors (“ Board ”) of Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “ Company ”), and member of the Compliance Committee and Finance Committee of the Board, notified the Company that she will be retiring from the Board at the end of he…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. In addition to disclosing results that are determined in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“ GAAP ”), the Company also discloses pro forma or non-GAAP results of operations, which are adjusted from GAAP to exclude non-cash compensation…