Reading INFU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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AMEXHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 39% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from INFU and the performance of sector bellwethers like ABT, SYK, and MDT. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.80 INFU trades at 23× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median. Our $14 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 39% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.98x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.10 (-4.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$192.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$464.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,117.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may signal a stronger health care market. This could benefit InfuSystem.
Confirms:Health care sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is close to 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth keeps slowing down. It is now below current levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for INFU yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
“Results of Operations and Financial Condition” of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
INFU InfuSystem Holdings Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Initiate a stock repurchase program authorizing up to $20 million in buybacks starting July 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company announced a stock repurchase program authorizing up to $20 million in buybacks starting July 2026. This is a new capital allocation initiative, and its impact on financials will be observed in future quarters.
“The Board approved a stock repurchase program authorizing up to $20 million in buybacks.”
Continue to forecast Adjusted EBITDA margin (non-GAAP) to be in the mid to low 20%'s for 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company continues to forecast Adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid to low 20%'s for 2026. Financials show a gross profit of $19.68 million in 2026-Q1, indicating a focus on maintaining cost efficiency. The trajectory will be clearer as the year progresses.
“We also are continuing to forecast Adjusted EBITDA margin (non-GAAP) to be in the mid to low 20%'s.”
InfuSystem is reaffirming annual net revenue guidance for the full year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company reaffirmed its annual net revenue guidance for 2026. Revenue was $33.68 million in 2026-Q1, down from $36.23 million in 2025-Q4, indicating a need for growth to meet the annual target. The trajectory will depend on future quarters' performance.
Regulation FD Disclosure On May 18, 2026, InfuSystem Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the Company’s Board of Directors has approved a stock repurchase program authorizing the Company to repurchase up to $20 million of the Company’s outstanding common stock starting on July 1, 2026 and running through through June 30, 2028. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished in this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Following the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders of InfuSystem Holdings, Inc. held on May 11, 2026, the newly constituted Board of Directors elected Beverly Huss to serve as the Chairman of the Board of Directors. There are no arrangements or understandings between Ms. Huss and any other persons, pursuant to which she was appointed as Chairman, no…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”) of InfuSystem Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) held on May 11, 2026, the Company's stockholders approved the Third Amendment (the “Third Amendment”) to the InfuSystem Holdings, Inc. 2021 Equity Incentive Plan (as amended, the “2021 Plan”), which was previously approved by the Comp…
Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant The Audit Committee (the "Committee") of the Board of Directors of InfuSystem Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") conducted a competitive selection process to determine the Company's independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. The Committee invited several firms to participate in this process, including Deloitte & Touche LLP ("Deloitte"), the Company's independent registered public accounting firm for the…
“InfuSystem is reaffirming annual net revenue guidance for the full year 2026.”