Reading HYPD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HYPD free→Reading HYPD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HYPD free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is fragile, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so there is no earnings yield to read. Peer multiples imply a price about 558% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.24, HYPD's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 70× p/s (7.2× the 10× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.50 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 558% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -4.53x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
20 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.34. 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$446.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,345.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,422.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Management fell by 13.4 points (from 73.9 to 60.5).
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
As of June 16, 2026, valuation fell, indicating a decrease in how the stock is priced relative to its peers. Management also fell, suggesting a decline in the assessment of the company's leadership. The signal changed to mixed, reflecting a shift in the overall outlook.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HYPD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. As Hyperion DeFi, Inc. (the “Company”) has previously disclosed, on May 14, 2026, Native Markets, Inc. (“Native Markets”) announced plans to cease supporting the USDH stablecoin and encouraged all holders to convert their holdings of USDH into USDC stablecoin or cash. Native Markets has granted Coinbase, Inc. (“Coinbase”) the rights to USDH’s brand assets, and Coinbase announced its plan to become the official deployer of USDC as an aligned quote asset on Hyperliquid. In connect…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HYPD HYPERION DEFI INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Hyperion DeFi plans to cease support for the USDH stablecoin and transition to USDC.
Hyunsu Jung was appointed as the permanent CEO of Hyperion DeFi.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, Hyperion DeFi, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securit…
Other Events. On May 5, 2026, Hyperion DeFi, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Chardan Capital Markets, LLC (the “Underwriter”), relating to the issuance and sale of 2,777,778 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), at an offering price of $3.60 per share. The Underwriter has agreed to purchase the Shares from the Company pursuant to the Underwriting Agreement at a pric…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 26, 2026, Hyperion DeFi, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Secur…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Chief Executive Officer Appointment On January 1, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company appointed Hyunsu Jung, who served as the Company’s Interim Chief Executive Officer since September 2025, as the Company’s permanent Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately. Mr. Jung will continue to serve as a director of the Company u…