Reading HWBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HWBK free→Reading HWBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HWBK free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Its earnings yield is above the sector (a relatively high yield), indicating a cheap valuation. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If HWBK cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 HWBK trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $41 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.21x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 200.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$134.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$362.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,374.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends are key for the financial sector's health. A drop could signal weakening demand.
Confirms:3-year revenue growth falls below its median of 15%.
Disproves:3-year revenue growth remains above its median.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HWBK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 2, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (the "Company") approved a form of restricted stock unit agreement under the Company's Equity Incentive Plan to be used for annual equity awards of restricted stock units to non-employee directors (the "Director RSU Agreement"). Under the Director RSU Agreement, non-…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HWBK Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | elevated |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Hawthorn Bancshares aims to increase its quarterly cash dividend to $0.21 per share.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.20 in 2025-Q4 to $0.21 in 2026-Q1. This reflects a consistent focus on returning value to shareholders, with the trajectory delivering on the stated priority.
“Board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per common share.”
“Board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per common share.”
Hawthorn Bancshares plans to acquire FSC Bancshares, Inc. to expand its market presence.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The acquisition of FSC Bancshares, Inc. is a strategic move to enhance market presence. Financials do not yet reflect the impact of this acquisition, indicating it is in the early stages of execution.
“Hawthorn Bancshares entered into an Agreement to acquire FSC Bancshares, Inc.”
Why it matters: New leaders can change how a company works. Investors will watch for effects on operations.
Confirms one read:Watch for good news or numbers after the leadership change.
Confirms the other:Watch for negative metrics or no updates after the leadership change.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how the company is doing. They also give hints about the future.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better results than expected and gives positive hints.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows worse results than expected and gives negative hints.
and Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless specifically stated otherwise. Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this Form 8-K/A constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are based on…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 29, 2026, Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc., a Missouri corporation (“HBI”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Reorganization Agreement”), by and among HBI, Hawthorn Holdco, Inc., a Missouri corporation and wholly-owned subsidiary of HBI (“Merger Sub”), and FSC Bancshares, Inc., a Missouri corporation (“FBI”), pursuant to which HBI will acquire FBI. Subject to the terms and conditions set forth in the Reorganization Agreeme…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of or otherwise subject to liabilities under Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 29, 2026, Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (the "Company") announced that the board of directors of each of the Company and Hawthorn Bank increased their respective sizes by one member, and appointed Grant T. Burcham to serve on both the Company's and Hawthorn Bank's board of directors to fill such newly created vacancies, in each case, effective…