Reading HOMB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HOMB free→Reading HOMB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HOMB free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, with the company trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 HOMB trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $30–$33. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.61 → $0.61 (-0.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$81.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$212.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,546.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
The valuation changed. It rose from "full" to "fair." Risk remained low. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is fragile. Management is stable.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if net income and EPS remain stable. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Net income for Q2 2026 is higher than $118.2 million.
Confirms the other:Net income for Q2 2026 drops below $118.2 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HOMB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Home BancShares, Inc. (the “Company”) hereby furnishes its April 15, 2026 press release announcing first quarter 2026 earnings, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$30.00 – $33.00 (median $32.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-19
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HOMB Home BancShares | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | low |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide stable earnings per share guidance for fiscal year 2026.
Maintain stable net income levels despite fluctuations in revenue.
Why it matters: A drop in NIM could show less profit. This may hurt overall earnings.
Confirms:NIM reported below 4.5% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:NIM remains at or above 4.5% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable net income indicates that the bank is managing costs and revenues effectively. This is crucial for growth.
Confirms:Net income for Q2 remains stable or increases compared to Q1 results.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 declines compared to Q1 results.
Why it matters: Stable EPS guidance shows that Home BancShares can manage earnings well. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Management says EPS guidance is the same or better during the Q2 earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance or gives a bad outlook during the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Home BancShares.
Confirms:Home BancShares reports revenue growth below the median of 13% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median of 13% year over year.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims can mean the economy is weak. This can hurt banks.
Confirms:Unemployment claims are over 300,000. This shows economic stress.
Disproves:Claims are under 250,000. This suggests the economy is stable.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets could mean higher credit risk. This can affect financial stability.
Confirms:Non-performing assets are more than 1.0% of total assets.
Disproves:Non-performing assets are less than 1.0% of total assets.
Why it matters: A higher efficiency ratio means worse cost management. This can hurt profits.
Confirms:Efficiency ratio is above 42.0% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Efficiency ratio is below 42.0%. This shows good cost management.
Other Events. On March 24, 2026, Home BancShares, Inc. (“Home”) announced that it has received approvals from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Arkansas State Bank Department of its applications to acquire Mountain Commerce Bancorp, Inc. (“MCBI”), the holding company for Mountain Commerce Bank. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Arkansas State Bank Department have each also approved the proposed merger of Mountain Commerce Bank with and int…
Other Events. As previously announced, on December 7, 2025, Home BancShares, Inc. (“Home” or the “Company”), its wholly-owned bank subsidiary, Centennial Bank, an Arkansas state bank (“Centennial”), and Home’s wholly-owned subsidiary HOMB Acquisition Sub IV, Inc. entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Mountain Commerce Bancorp, Inc., a Tennessee corporation (“MCBI”), and its wholly-owned bank subsidiary, Mountain Commerce Bank, a Tennessee state banking cor…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Home BancShares, Inc. (the “Company”) hereby furnishes its October 15, 2025 press release announcing third quarter 2025 earnings, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.