Home BancShares (HOMB)

Q: What's priced into Home BancShares (HOMB) stock?

Valuation is tagged as justified, with expectations broadly aligned with the evidence and no major fragility signals. HOMB carries a modest premium versus peers, while the value assessment is neutral, so the current setup does not show a clear expectations gap.

Q: What does the Home BancShares (HOMB) outlook hinge on?

The main favorable case is continued earnings delivery, acquisition integration, and stronger results across financial-sector peers. The unfavorable case is a guidance cut or falling interest rates, which the evidence says could pressure the sector. Management’s cost control and the outcome of the integration remain important swing factors.

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$30.10-0.17%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Home BancShares’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.60 → 2.60 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	293.07M
EPS	—	0.653
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	288.03M
EPS	—	0.624
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.15B
EPS	—	2.537
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.19B
EPS	—	2.6

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS remains within guidance range $2.44 to $2.53 in FY26	Home BancShares keeps stable earnings with EPS guidance near $2.5 for 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $2.44 or above $2.53 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.59 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $2.44 and $2.53. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.59 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 624f2549-2107-4b11-a166-d941938bd8d4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income remains stable near $118 million quarterly	Net income stayed steady at about $118 million despite slight revenue dips.	Under Pressure	Net income falls below $118 million in any quarter	Net income: $119.327M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $118 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026119,327,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 624f2549-2107-4b11-a166-d941938bd8d4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue does not decline more than 3.5% in next 12 months	A supporting condition in Home BancShares's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline no worse than -3.5% YoY.	Intact	Revenue decline exceeds -3.5% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
P/E remains near 12x or below	A supporting condition in Home BancShares's published investment case. The stated target is P/E <= 12.	Intact	P/E rises above 14 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 12.09x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202612.0884 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: HOMB:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.60

$2.60 → $2.60 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.19B

$1.22B → $1.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.60	$1,224,491,401	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$2.60	$1,224,491,401	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-07-27	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-07-28	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-07-29	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-07-30	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-07-31	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-01	$2.61	$1,225,733,298	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-03	$2.61	$1,225,733,298	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-05	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-06	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-07	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-09	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-10	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-13	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-14	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$2.60	$1,200,911,835	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$2.60	$1,200,911,835	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$2.60	$1,200,911,835	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$2.60	$1,202,099,409	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$2.60	$1,202,099,409	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$2.60	$1,202,099,409	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-13	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-14	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-15	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-16	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-17	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-18	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-19	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-20	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-21	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-22	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-23	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-24	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-09-25	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-09-26	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-09-27	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-09-28	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-09-29	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-09-30	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-01	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-02	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-03	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-04	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-05	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-06	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-07	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-08	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-09	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-10	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-10-11	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-10-12	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-10-13	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-10-14	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-10-15	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-10-16	$2.60	$1,198,086,742	7 / 6
2026-10-17	$2.60	$1,198,086,742	7 / 6
2026-10-18	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6
2026-10-19	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6
2026-10-20	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6
2026-10-21	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6
2026-10-22	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6
2026-10-23	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6
2026-10-24	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	5
2026-06-01	3	6
2026-07-01	3	6
2026-08-01	3	6
2026-09-01	4	6
2026-10-01	4	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS remains within guidance range $2.44 to $2.53 in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Net income remains stable near $118 million quarterlyPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue does not decline more than 3.5% in next 12 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
P/E remains near 12x or belowP/E (TTM): 12.09x

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Home BancShares outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HOMB is a regional bank with a steady-earnings and acquisition-integration thesis, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact, though recent company momentum weakened and management still needs to complete the Mountain Commerce integration.

What's priced into Home BancShares

Valuation is tagged as justified, with expectations broadly aligned with the evidence and no major fragility signals. HOMB carries a modest premium versus peers, while the value assessment is neutral, so the current setup does not show a clear expectations gap.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings have been consistent: diluted EPS ranged from $0.59 to $0.65, and net income reached a record in the third quarter. Cost efficiency improved, though part of that change came from merger expenses no longer being present; the company’s momentum score also fell after fresh earnings. Over the multi-year view, results depend on continued earnings stability and successful integration, with sector conditions and recent litigation adding risk.

What Home BancShares hinges on

The main favorable case is continued earnings delivery, acquisition integration, and stronger results across financial-sector peers. The unfavorable case is a guidance cut or falling interest rates, which the evidence says could pressure the sector. Management’s cost control and the outcome of the integration remain important swing factors.

Bottom line

For the next one to three years, HOMB’s long-term thesis rests on steady earnings and successful acquisition integration, but the sector headwind and weaker recent momentum temper the setup. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	293.07M
EPS	—	0.653
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	288.03M
EPS	—	0.624
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.15B
EPS	—	2.537
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.19B
EPS	—	2.6

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.60

$2.60 → $2.60 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.19B

$1.22B → $1.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.60	$1,224,491,401	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$2.60	$1,224,491,401	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-07-27	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-07-28	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-07-29	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-07-30	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-07-31	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-01	$2.61	$1,225,733,298	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-03	$2.61	$1,225,733,298	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-05	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-06	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-07	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-09	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-10	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-13	$2.60	$1,204,686,840	9 / 8
2026-08-14	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$2.60	$1,204,661,835	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$2.60	$1,200,911,835	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$2.60	$1,200,911,835	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$2.60	$1,200,911,835	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$2.60	$1,202,099,409	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$2.60	$1,202,099,409	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$2.60	$1,202,099,409	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-13	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-14	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-15	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-16	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-17	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-18	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-19	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-20	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-21	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-22	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-23	$2.60	$1,201,243,854	7 / 6
2026-09-24	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-09-25	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-09-26	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-09-27	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-09-28	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-09-29	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-09-30	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-01	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-02	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-03	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-04	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-05	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-06	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-07	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-08	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-09	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 7
2026-10-10	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-10-11	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-10-12	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-10-13	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-10-14	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-10-15	$2.60	$1,201,370,076	7 / 6
2026-10-16	$2.60	$1,198,086,742	7 / 6
2026-10-17	$2.60	$1,198,086,742	7 / 6
2026-10-18	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6
2026-10-19	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6
2026-10-20	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6
2026-10-21	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6
2026-10-22	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6
2026-10-23	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6
2026-10-24	$2.60	$1,187,051,096	7 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings