Reading HCAT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQHealth CareHealth Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. If HCAT cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.78. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.84 HCAT trades at 9× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $2.99 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $1.75–$3.00. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 38% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.07x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.02 → $0.03 (+25.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$332.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$755.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,564.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key for Health Catalyst to support its operations and growth.
Confirms:Cash from operations shows a year-over-year increase of at least 10%.
Disproves:Cash from operations goes down or stays the same each year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HCAT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 4, 2026, Health Catalyst, Inc. ("Health Catalyst") entered into a Unit Purchase Agreement (the "Purchase Agreement") with Med-Metrix, LLC ("Buyer"), pursuant to which, among other things, Health Catalyst has agreed to sell all of the equity interests of Vitalware, LLC, through which Health Catalyst conducts its Vitalware business (the "Vitalware Business"), to Buyer (the "Transaction"). In connection with the Transaction, Health Catalyst wil…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$1.75 – $3.00 (median $2.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Technology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HCAT Health Catalyst, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
VEEV Veeva Systems | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | elevated |
SOLV Solventum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TEM TEMPUS AI, INC. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | — | elevated |
TXG 10X Genomics, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations, which increased significantly in 2026-Q1.
Management is focused on addressing ongoing operating losses, which increased in 2026-Q1.
Why it matters: The health care sector's growth trends can affect Health Catalyst's performance and outlook.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth in the health care sector re-accelerates back toward 10% or higher.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth slows down to below 5%.
Why it matters: The sale could affect Health Catalyst's finances and focus.
Confirms one read:Finishing the sale brings positive cash flow or a strategic edge.
Confirms the other:The sale does not close or results in a negative financial impact.
Why it matters: Fixing operating losses helps the company's money situation. It also builds trust with investors.
Confirms:Operating losses drop by at least 20% from the last quarter.
Disproves:Operating losses increase or do not improve from the previous quarter.
shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, including for the purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of Health Catalyst, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K contains “forward-looking statements” within the me…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026 , Health Catalyst, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release relating to its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 . A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amende…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Steven Nelson Appointment as Board Member On April 29, 2026, the board of directors (our Board) of Health Catalyst, Inc. (the Company), upon the recommendation of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, appointed Steven Nelson to the Board, effective May 1, 2026. Mr. Nelson was appointed to fill a newly created vacant Board seat due to t…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 24, 2026, the Board of Directors (our Board) of Health Catalyst, Inc. (the Company) determined that Linda Llewelyn will cease to serve as the Chief People Officer of the Company effective June 1, 2026 due to the elimination of the Chief People Officer role in connection with the workforce reduction described in this Current Report on Form…