Reading HBT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HBT free→Reading HBT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HBT free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact HBT's performance compared to sector peers, as it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential cuts to guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers, as these could significantly influence HBT's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $30.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $30 HBT trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.72 → $0.73 (+2.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$111.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$288.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,340.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how HBT is performing amid sector headwinds. This could affect investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share exceeds analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share falls short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HBT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 27, 2026, HBT Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Earnings Release”). A copy of the Earnings Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Report”) and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith, shall not be deemed “filed” for pur…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HBT HBT Financial, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of CNB Bank Shares, Inc. to expand market presence.
Continue the increased quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share to shareholders.
Control noninterest expenses to remain within the $41M to $43M range per quarter for 2026.
Why it matters: Rising unemployment claims can signal economic weakness. This may impact HBT's loan performance.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000 for two consecutive weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment claims stay below 300,000 for two consecutive weeks.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt HBT's performance.
Confirms:3-year revenue growth falls below 15%.
Disproves:3-year revenue growth remains at or above 15%.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On March 1, 2026, HBT Financial, Inc. (“HBT Financial”) completed its previously announced acquisition (the “Merger”) of CNB Bank Shares, Inc., an Illinois corporation (“CNB”), pursuant to an Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated October 20, 2025 between HBT Financial, CNB, and HB-CNB Merger, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“MergerCo”) and wholly-owned subsidiary of HBT Financial (the “Merger Agreement”). On March 2, 2026, HBT Financial filed a…
Other Events. On April 28, 2026, the Board of Directors of HBT Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share on the Company’s common stock (the “Dividend”). The Dividend is payable on May 19, 2026 to shareholders of record as of May 12, 2026. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. HBT FINANCIAL, INC.…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 24, 2026, on the recommendation of its Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, the Boards of Directors of HBT Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) and Heartland Bank and Trust Company (collectively, the “Boards”) increased the size of their respective Boards and appointed Michael J. Morton to the Boards, effective April 1, 2026. Mr. Mort…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 11, 2026, HBT Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Subordinated Note Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with certain institutional accredited investors and qualified institutional buyers (collectively, the “Purchasers”) pursuant to which the Company sold and issued $85.0 million in aggregate principal amount of its 5.75% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The Notes were issued by the Compa…