Reading HBNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HBNC free→Reading HBNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HBNC free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 HBNC trades at 6× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 20% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.57x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.50 → $0.51 (+1.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$255.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,665.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Continued losses would confirm the weak financial health of Horizon Bancorp. This could lead to negative investor sentiment.
Confirms:Earnings report on July 22 shows a net loss greater than previous quarters.
Disproves:The earnings report shows profits or smaller losses.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HBNC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 22, 2026, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for the three–months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated here by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HBNC Horizon Bancorp Inc/IN | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change lending rates. This affects banks like Horizon Bancorp and their profits.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates, leading to improved margins for banks.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts interest rates, which could squeeze bank margins.
Why it matters: A drop below the median could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact Horizon Bancorp's growth outlook.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median growth rate of around 15%.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median growth rate.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition Horizon Bancorp, Inc. issued a press release announcing that the Company’s financial results for the first quarter of 2026 will be released after the market close on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Management will also host a conference call to discuss the Company’s financial results for the first quarter of 2026 on Thursday, April 23, 2026 at 7:30 a.m. CT (8:30 a.m. ET). The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Other Events On March 17, 2026, the Board of Directors of Horizon Bancorp, Inc. approved a dividend of $0.16 per share, payable on April 17, 2026, to stockholders of record on April 3, 2026. 2 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Date: March 18, 2026 HORIZON BANCORP, INC. By: /s/ John R. Stewart, CFA John R. Stewart, CFA Executive Vice P…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 3, 2026, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (“Horizon” or the “Company”) announced the elimination of the position of Chief Administration Officer of the Company and its wholly-owned Indiana-chartered commercial bank subsidiary, Horizon Bank (the “Bank”), effective as of March 31, 2026. As a result, Mark E. Secor, the Executive Vice President, Chief Ad…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 21, 2026, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for the three–months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated here by reference.