Horizon Bancorp Inc/IN (HBNC)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$20.37+1.90%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Horizon Bancorp Inc/IN’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	78.48M
EPS	—	0.542
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	78.1M
EPS	—	0.525
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	307.78M
EPS	—	2.138
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	324.5M
EPS	—	2.244

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve solid balance sheet growth with top-tier profitability	A supporting condition in Horizon Bancorp Inc/IN's published investment case. The stated target is solid balance sheet growth with strong profitability metrics.	Improving	Balance sheet growth stalls or profitability metrics weaken materially	Q3 2026 earnings beat with 20% ROTCE vs qualitative target Q3 2026 earnings beat, 20% ROTCE, and Q4 NII guidance of $66M-$67M reinforce profitability. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend payout at $0.16 per share	Horizon Bancorp keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.16 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.16	Dividend per share: $0.16 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.16 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.16 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b67f2eb0-c8d7-40b0-83f8-562337403d9c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS at or above $2.10 in FY26	Earnings per share are expected around $2.10 in 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $2.10 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.49 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.10 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.49 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b67f2eb0-c8d7-40b0-83f8-562337403d9c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue decline no worse than -6.4% in next 12 months	A supporting condition in Horizon Bancorp Inc/IN's published investment case. The stated target is >=-6.4% YoY.	Intact	Revenue decline exceeds -6.4% YoY	Revenue growth: -3.25% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=-6.4% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-3.245625 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b67f2eb0-c8d7-40b0-83f8-562337403d9c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-26	$2.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-27	$2.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-30	$2.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-31	$2.23	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	$2.23	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-04	$2.23	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	$2.23	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$2.23	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-08	$2.23	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-09	$2.23	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	$2.23	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-13	$2.23	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	2
2026-06-01	4	1
2026-07-01	4	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 23 · prior Oct 2

$24.00 → $25.00+4.2%

$0$13.75$27.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payout at $0.16 per shareDividend per share: $0.16 per share
EPS at or above $2.10 in FY26Published status: Broken
Revenue decline no worse than -6.4% in next 12 monthsRevenue growth: -3.25%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Horizon Bancorp Inc/IN outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regional banking business with a measured recovery thesis, not a clear-cut growth story. The thesis state is watch: recent momentum has improved, but financial performance remains well below its industry cohort and management execution is mixed.

What's priced into Horizon Bancorp Inc/IN

Valuation is described as aligned, with HBNC at a modest premium to peers and only a small expectations gap. The evidence does not point to unusually fragile pricing, but it also does not show a clear valuation discount that would offset the business concerns.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the near term, profitability measures have improved: return on average assets and net interest margin rose from the first to the third quarter of 2026. First-nine-month loan and deposit growth also supports management’s stated growth direction, while expense control remains less proven because the latest quarterly expense decline followed a nonrecurring legal charge. Recent earnings beats are positive, but weak relative performance and possible guidance cuts remain risks.

What Horizon Bancorp Inc/IN hinges on

The multi-year view depends on whether HBNC can sustain profitability gains, grow loans and deposits, and show more durable expense discipline. A guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while falling rates are identified as a sector headwind. Continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum, though the evidence is limited on how directly that would affect HBNC.