Reading GNW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GNW free→Reading GNW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GNW free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is robust, with cash backing profits. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.87 GNW trades at 18× p/e — 1.4× the 12× p/e peer median, and above its own 6× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $6.20 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 43% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.78x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.07. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$219.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,407.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below this level could signal financial strain in the mortgage insurance segment.
Confirms:PMIERs sufficiency ratio falls below 160% in a future quarter.
Disproves:PMIERs sufficiency ratio stays above 160% in a future quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GNW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Genworth Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued (1) a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference, and (2) a financial supplement for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Current…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-line Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GNW Genworth Financial, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
AIG American International Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
L Loews Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | low |
AIZ Assurant | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFG American Financial Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities to support business operations.
Continue efforts to enhance operating income across business segments.
Ensure consistent revenue performance across reporting periods.
Why it matters: A drop could mean less demand for home care services, affecting future growth.
Confirms:CareScout matches are below 1,400 in a future quarter.
Disproves:CareScout matches remain above 1,400 in a future quarter.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may show problems with profits and stability.
Confirms:Operating income without Closed Block is below $100M in a future quarter.
Disproves:Operating income without Closed Block stays above $100M in a future quarter.
Why it matters: More buybacks show strong cash flow and that management trusts the stock.
Confirms:Share repurchases in Q2 2026 exceed $100M.
Disproves:Share repurchases in Q2 2026 are below $50M.
Why it matters: Higher cash flow from operations means better financial health. This can support growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities exceeds $91M in Q2, showing strong cash flow.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities is below $91M. This shows there may be cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could impact Genworth's performance. It signals broader challenges.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median, indicating a slowdown.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is above its median. This suggests things are stable.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the business is doing well and making more cash.
Confirms:Q2 2026 operating income is over $109 million. This is more than Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 2026 operating income is less than $109 million.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 23, 2026, Genworth Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued (1) a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference, and (2) a financial supplement for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 3, 2026, Enact Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: ACT), a publicly traded subsidiary of Genworth Financial, Inc., issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, incorporated by reference as Exhibit 99.1. Genworth Financial, Inc. announced it will issue its earnings release for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 after the market closes on February 23, 2026. A conference call will be held on Febru…