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Lincoln Financial (LNC)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$37.98+1.09%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, LNC trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance - Life
- Market cap
- $7.18B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-30
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$74.56consensus
Range $29.23 – $105.49
vs price: -49% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$105.58consensus
Range $45.09 – $130.86
vs price: -64% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $38 LNC trades at 5× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $74 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $37–$48. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
4.6x
peer 12.5x · own history 5.4x
Premium
0.4x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-49%
our forecast -28%
Our fair value
$74.30
range $29.17 – $104.89
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 49% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -28%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
17th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
9th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral12 analysts, 38% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.03 → $2.03 (-0.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 5 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.8% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$120.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$356.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,910.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for net outflows in Annuities to decrease below $1.5 billion
Why it matters: Lower net outflows in Annuities show that customers are more loyal. This can lead to higher sales.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Net outflows in Annuities fall below $1.5 billion in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Net outflows in Annuities remain above $1.5 billion in Q2 2026.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-161mo agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Maintain dividend payout
Highlights dividend strength, aligns with capital allocation objective.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like AFL, MET, and PRU keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting LNC and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If LNC raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2025-07-31), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If LNC cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2025-07-31), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on LNC and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like AFL, MET, and PRU start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping LNC and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Lincoln National Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company’s statistical supplement for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, is attached as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information, including exhibits attached hereto, furnished und…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.