Reading AIZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, AIZ is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $259.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $259 AIZ trades at 12× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $299 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $268–$290. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.25 → $5.16 (-1.7% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$211.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,258.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This is a key measure of Assurant's financial health. Lower growth may signal issues.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted EBITDA growth was below 8%.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EBITDA growth reported at 8% or higher.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AIZ yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 21, 2026, Assurant, Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders approved an amendment to the Assurant, Inc. 2017 Long Term Equity Incentive Plan (the “ALTEIP”; and as amended and restated, the “Amended ALTEIP”), previously approved by the Compensa…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$268.00 – $290.00 (median $279.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-line Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AIZ Assurant | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AIG American International Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
L Loews Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | low |
AFG American Financial Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LNC Lincoln Financial | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted earnings per share, excluding reportable catastrophes.
Drive growth in Global Lifestyle Adjusted EBITDA, focusing on Connected Living and Global Automotive.
Focus on sustaining EBITDA growth through strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies.
Aim to enhance adjusted earnings per share through operational improvements and strategic initiatives.
Focus on increasing EBITDA in the Global Housing segment through strategic growth and operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: This metric shows how well the company is increasing profits. Lower growth could concern investors.
Confirms:Adjusted earnings per share growth reported below 16%.
Disproves:Adjusted earnings per share growth reported at 16% or higher.
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section 18, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing.
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section 18, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 28, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Assurant, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Lynn Blake to the Board and to the Finance and Risk Committee and Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board, subject to customary regulatory approval. Ms. Blake most recently served as Executive Vice President and Chief Investment…
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section 18, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing.