Assurant (AIZ)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$283.31+0.51%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Assurant’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

23.35 → 23.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase Adjusted EBITDA and EPS excluding catastrophes	Assurant grows adjusted EBITDA and EPS steadily.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA or EPS falls below 2026-Q1 levels	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in all 6 quarters from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding reportable catastrophes, grew from $1,569 million in 2024 to $1,734 million in 2025, with Q2 2026 showing an 18% increase year-over-year to $491.4 million. Adjusted earnings per diluted share excluding catastrophes increased 19% in Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025. The trajectory matches management's stated growth targets and is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Enhance Global Lifestyle Adjusted EBITDA	Global Lifestyle EBITDA rises 20% in Q1 2026.	Intact	Global Lifestyle EBITDA falls below 2026-Q1 level	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near consensus	A supporting condition in Assurant's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth next fiscal year.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next fiscal year	Revenue growth: 9.37% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth next fiscal year. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20269.365502 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a1a8c4ab-628d-4d7f-bbc8-b8e3eb6712a7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$23.36

$22.50 → $23.36 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$22.50	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-07-25	$22.50	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-07-26	$22.50	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-07-27	$22.44	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-28	$22.50	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-07-29	$22.50	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-07-30	$22.44	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-31	$22.50	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-08-01	$22.50	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-08-02	$22.50	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-08-03	$22.50	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-08-04	$22.50	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-08-05	$22.56	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-08-06	$22.50	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-08-07	$22.85	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-08	$23.16	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-09	$23.16	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-10	$23.16	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-11	$23.16	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-12	$23.16	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-13	$23.16	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-14	$22.85	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-15	$22.85	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-16	$22.85	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-17	$22.85	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-18	$22.85	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-19	$22.85	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-20	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-21	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-22	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-23	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-24	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-25	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-26	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-27	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-28	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-29	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-30	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-31	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-01	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-02	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-03	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-04	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-05	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-06	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-07	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-08	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-09	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-10	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-11	$23.25	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-12	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-13	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-14	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-15	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-16	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$23.35	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$23.36	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$23.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-15	$23.36	Unavailable	5 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	1
2026-06-01	7	0
2026-07-01	7	0
2026-08-01	7	0
2026-09-01	7	0
2026-10-01	7	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase Adjusted EBITDA and EPS excluding catastrophesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Enhance Global Lifestyle Adjusted EBITDADirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain revenue growth near consensusRevenue growth: 9.37%

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Assurant outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is characterized as a durable compounder, focusing on consistent earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's clear priorities.

What's priced into Assurant

The market appears to have a neutral valuation, with a slight expectations gap indicating that some growth is already anticipated. AIZ is priced at a premium compared to its peers, suggesting that investors expect it to perform well relative to the industry.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue improving as management executes on their priorities, particularly in growing Adjusted EBITDA and earnings in the Global Lifestyle and Housing segments. There is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, though recent industry trends warrant cautious observation.

What Assurant hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and the potential impact of Federal Reserve rate changes. If AIZ can maintain its guidance and continue to deliver strong results, it will likely benefit from broader sector momentum.