Reading GERN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GERN free→Reading GERN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GERN free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. If GERN cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative, while improvements in sector trends could provide some support. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.87x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.01 (+40.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$256.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$615.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,359.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GERN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) Amendment to 2018 Equity Incentive Plan As further described below, at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders of Geron Corporation (the “Company”) held on May 20, 2026 (the “2026 Annual Meeting”), the Company’s stockholders approved an amendment and restatement of the Company’s 2018 Equity Incentive Plan to, among other items, increase the num…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GERN Geron Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | — | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management expects RYTELO net product revenue to be between $220 million and $240 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue for 2026-Q1 was $51.8 million, up from $47.2 million in 2025-Q3. The guidance for RYTELO net product revenue remains consistent at $220 million to $240 million for fiscal year 2026, indicating a recurring focus with limited substantive delivery so far.
“RYTELO net product revenue expected in the range of $220 million to $240 million.”
“the Company expects RYTELO net product revenue to be in the range of $220 million to $240 million.”
Geron expects total operating expenses to be between $230 million and $240 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income improved from -$25.5 million in 2025-Q4 to $158,000 in 2026-Q1. The guidance for operating expenses has been adjusted to $230 million to $240 million for fiscal year 2026, showing a recurring focus with some progress in cost management.
“Total operating expenses expected in the range of $230 million to $240 million.”
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Election of Directors On March 25, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Geron Corporation (the “Company”), upon the recommendation of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board, elected Patricia S. Andrews and Constantine Chinoporos to the Board, in each case effective immediately, and each as a Class III director for a…
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report shall be deemed to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing made by the Company with the U.S. Securities and Exchang…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Pharmakon Loan Agreement Amendment On January 5, 2026, Geron Corporation (“we” or the “Company”) entered into that certain first amendment to loan agreement (the “First Amendment Agreement”) with BioPharma Credit Investments V (Master) LP and BPCR Limited Partnership (each, a “Lender”), which are investment funds managed by Pharmakon Advisors, LP, and BioPharma Credit PLC, as collateral agent (the “Agent”), which amends the terms of that certain Loa…
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On December 16, 2025, Geron Corporation (the “Company”) began implementation of a strategic restructuring plan intended to position the Company for long-term value creation for patients and shareholders and improve its financial discipline (the “Plan”). The Company’s Board of Directors unanimously approved the Plan on December 10, 2025. As part of the Plan, the Company will implement a reduction in workforce of approximately one-third of its…
“For fiscal year 2025, the Company expects total operating expenses will be between $250 million and $260 million.”