Reading GCBC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GCBC free→Reading GCBC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GCBC free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If GCBC cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $30 GCBC trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $23 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 26% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$121.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$337.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,615.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings reports provide insights into performance and future guidance. This report is crucial for investors.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share is much higher than what analysts expected.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share is much lower than what analysts expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GCBC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 22, 2026, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. issued a press release disclosing financial results for the three and nine months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is included as exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in the preceding paragraph, as well as Exhibit 99.1 referenced therein, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by refere…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GCBC Greene County Bancorp, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue the quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, reflecting an annual rate of $0.40 per share.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company maintained a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, consistent with the previous quarter, reflecting an annual rate of $0.40 per share. This indicates a stable capital allocation strategy.
“Board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, same as previous quarter.”
“Board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, same as previous quarter.”
Initiate a stock repurchase program for up to 400,000 shares, representing approximately 5% of outstanding shares.
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. The company announced a stock repurchase program for up to 400,000 shares, representing approximately 5% of its outstanding shares. This move is part of its capital allocation strategy, but no buybacks have been executed yet.
“Announced a stock repurchase program for up to 400,000 shares, about 5% of outstanding shares.”
Target an EPS of $1.74 for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, based on current performance.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company reported net income of $29.7 million for the nine months ended March 31, 2026, achieving an EPS of $1.74. This aligns with the EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026, indicating delivery on growth targets.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key driver for the financial sector. A drop below median signals trouble.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims data shows how the economy is doing. High claims can mean trouble.
Confirms one read:Weekly claims drop below 200,000.
Confirms the other:Weekly claims rise above 300,000.
Other Events On April 22, 2026, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ-GCBC) today announced that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share on the Company’s common stock. The dividend reflects an annual cash dividend rate of $0.40 per share, which is the same rate as the dividend declared during the previous quarter. A press release announcing the details of the dividend declaration is filed as exhibit 99.1. Greene County Bancorp, MHC (the “MHC”), the mutua…
Other Events On April 15, 2026, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that it had authorized a stock repurchase program for up to 400,000 shares of the Company’s outstanding shares of common stock. This amount represents approximately 5.0% of the Company’s 7,808,300 shares of outstanding common stock held by shareholders other than Greene County Bancorp, MHC, the Company’s majority mutual holding company parent. A copy of the press release announcing the stock repurchase progr…
Other Events On March 19, 2026, Greene County Bancorp, MHC (the “MHC”), the mutual holding company and the 54.1% majority owner of Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”), received the nonobjection of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia to waive its right to receive dividends, aggregating up to $0.64 per share, paid by the Company during the four quarters ending with the quarters that end on March 31, 2026, June 30, 2026, September 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026. As has been previou…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 21, 2026, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. issued a press release disclosing financial results for the three and six months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is included as exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in the preceding paragraph, as well as Exhibit 99.1 referenced therein, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by re…
“Net income for nine months ended March 31, 2026, was $29.7 million, or $1.74 per share.”
“Net income for six months ended December 31, 2025, was $19.2 million, or $1.13 per share.”