Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$35.06+1.15%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Greene County Bancorp aims to deliver an EPS of $1.74 in fiscal 2026, showing steady profit growth. The company supports shareholders with a stable $0.40 annual dividend and a recent buyback of 5% of shares. Revenue growth is expected to continue around 17% next year. Profit margins and cash flow remain solid, supporting ongoing operations.
If Greene County Bancorp fails to meet its EPS target of $1.74 or if loan losses rise, profits could weaken. Regulatory or legal issues could increase costs or limit dividend payments. A slowdown in regional economic growth could reduce loan demand and revenue growth below 17%.
The current price reflects expectations for about 17% revenue growth and the company meeting its EPS guidance of $1.74. Our view aligns with these growth expectations but notes the valuation is stretched about 28% above our model's central estimate.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.10 quarterly
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.74 in fiscal year 2026
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 17% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on returning value to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent financial performance and management priorities.
The market seems to have priced in a stretched valuation, reflecting a durable premium compared to peers. There is a moderate expectations gap, indicating that while the company is performing well, there is room for further positive surprises.
Fundamentals are likely to remain steady, given that management is on track with its priorities, including increasing the dividend and achieving earnings per share (EPS) guidance. Recent financial performance has shown improvement, with EPS exceeding expectations.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for GCBC. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact GCBC's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GCBC appears to be in a solid position, but it is essential to monitor sector developments closely. Not investment advice.