Reading FULC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FULC free→Reading FULC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FULC free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, it is above typical. The valuation grid is empty, so no valuation details are available. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.45 FULC trades at 3× p/s, below its 10× p/s peer median. Our $16 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $3.00–$17. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 78% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.83x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.29 → $-0.23 (+19.3% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 6 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 47% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -43.9% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$280.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$729.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,849.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings will show if Fulcrum's finances are getting better or worse.
Confirms:Earnings show a big drop in net losses from past quarters.
Disproves:Earnings report shows net losses are still high or getting worse.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FULC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed, on May 31, 2026, the board of directors, or Board, of Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc., or Fulcrum, approved a restructuring plan to significantly reduce Fulcrum’s operating expenses and preserve capital following the discontinuation of development of pociredir for the treatment of sickle cell disease. In connection therewith, on…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$3.00 – $17.00 (median $4.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FULC Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | — | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Implement a restructuring plan to reduce workforce by approximately 85% to preserve capital.
Engage in a comprehensive review of strategic alternatives to maximize stockholder value.
Why it matters: The reduction aims to cut costs significantly. This will show if Fulcrum can manage expenses better.
Confirms:Fulcrum cuts its workforce to 9 full-time employees as planned.
Disproves:Fulcrum fails to reduce the workforce as planned or delays the process.
Why it matters: This review could lead to a merger or asset sale, impacting stockholder value.
Confirms one read:Fulcrum announces a deal for a merger or asset sale.
Confirms the other:Fulcrum says it will not pursue any strategic options.
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On May 31, 2026, the board of directors of Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc., or Fulcrum, approved a restructuring plan to significantly reduce Fulcrum’s operating expenses and preserve capital following the discontinuation of development of pociredir for the treatment of sickle cell disease, or SCD. The restructuring plan will reduce Fulcrum’s workforce by approximately 85%, from 57 full-time employees to 9 full-time employees, and is expected to b…
Other Events. As previously disclosed, Fulcrum has initiated a comprehensive review of strategic alternatives intended to maximize stockholder value. In connection with this process, Fulcrum has engaged Leerink Partners LLC as its financial advisor to assist the Board of Directors in reviewing potential strategic alternatives, including, but not limited to, a merger, acquisition, business combination, sale or licensing of assets, or other strategic transaction involving the company or its ass…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Director On April 23, 2026, the board of directors, or the Board, of Fulcrum, upon the recommendation of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board, appointed Josh Lehrer as a member of the Board, with immediate effect. Mr. Lehrer will serve as a Class III director with a term expiring at Fulcrum’s 2028 annual mee…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 27, 2026, Fulcrum announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…