Reading FRME? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FRME free→Reading FRME? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FRME free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts from FRME and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $41 FRME trades at 10× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $49 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 16% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.03 → $1.02 (-1.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$218.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,572.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Rising unemployment claims may show economic weakness. This could hurt First Merchants' loans and growth.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise a lot above previous levels on either date.
Disproves:Unemployment claims stay the same or go down.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FRME yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
DEPARTURE OR APPOINTMENT OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS On May 19, 2026, First Merchants Corporation (the “Corporation”) announced the retirement of Gary Lehman from the Board of Directors effective immediately. Mr. Lehman has served on the Board since 2011 and was a member of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee. The retirement of Mr. Lehman is not the result of any disagreement with the Corporation on any matter relating to the Corporation’s operations, policies, or practices. A…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FRME First Merchants Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
19 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to declare and pay quarterly cash dividends to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. First Merchants consistently declared quarterly dividends, with the latest being $0.37 per common share in 2026-Q2. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, maintaining shareholder returns through regular dividends.
“On May 19, 2026, First Merchants announced a cash dividend of $0.37 per common share.”
“On February 10, 2026, First Merchants announced a cash dividend of $0.36 per common share.”
“On January 12, 2026, First Merchants declared a quarterly cash dividend on its preferred stock.”
“On October 12, 2025, First Merchants declared a quarterly cash dividend on its preferred stock.”
Finalize the acquisition of First Savings Financial Group to expand market presence.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The acquisition of First Savings Financial Group was completed in 2026-Q1, marking a strategic expansion for First Merchants. This aligns with their growth strategy to enhance market presence, as previously outlined in the merger agreement.
“On February 2, 2026, First Merchants announced the closing of its acquisition of First Savings Financial Group.”
Focus on improving earnings per share by enhancing operational efficiency.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Adjusted EPS for 2026-Q1 was $1.03, a 9.6% increase from the prior year period, indicating progress in operational efficiency. This reflects management's focus on enhancing earnings through cost management and operational improvements.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below the median signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact First Merchants' performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth for the financial sector drops below its median level.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median level.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into First Merchants' performance amid sector headwinds. It is a key indicator of future growth.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows earnings growth that is better than expected. This is compared to the last quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a decline in earnings compared to the previous quarter.
OTHER EVENTS On May 19, 2026, First Merchants Corporation issued a press release announcing the declaration of a cash dividend of $0.37 per common share. The cash dividend is payable on June 19, 2026 to common stockholders of record as of June 5, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and the attached exhibit shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On April 22, 2026, First Merchants Corporation issued a press release to report its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. On April 23, 2026, First Merchants Corporation will conduct a first quarter 2026 earnings conference call and webcast at 9:00 a.m. (ET). A copy of the slide presentation utilized on the conference call is furnis…
OTHER EVENTS On April 16, 2026, First Merchants Corporation issued a press release announcing its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend on its 7.50% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series A, of $46.88 per share (equivalent to $0.4688 per depositary share) payable on May 15, 2026, to stockholders of record on April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and the attached…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. (d) On February 9, 2026, the Board of Directors of First Merchants Corporation (the “Corporation”) increased the size of its Board of Directors from twelve (12) to thirteen (13) members with the additional vacancy added in Class III. The Board appointed Larry W. Myers to fill the vacancy. Mr. Myers' initial term will continue until the 2026 Annual…
“The Company and First Savings entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger on September 24, 2025.”
“Adjusted EPS for 2026-Q1 was $1.03, a 9.6% increase from the prior year period.”