First Merchants Corp. (FRME)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$40.68-0.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge First Merchants Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.49 → 4.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	205.63M
EPS	—	1.025
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	204.12M
EPS	—	1.038
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	806.11M
EPS	—	3.239
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	847.35M
EPS	—	4.432

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain steady dividends and share buybacks	The bank pays steady dividends of $0.37 per share.	Intact	Dividend cut below $0.37 or buybacks halted	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase EPS through operational efficiency	A primary condition in First Merchants Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.88 EPS in FY26.	Broken	EPS falls below $3.50 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.70 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.88 EPS in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.7 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a5a89755-f2c8-493a-80a0-9784eb74c75a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete and integrate First Savings Financial Group acquisition	A supporting condition in First Merchants Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Acquisition fully integrated by end of 2026.	Intact	Acquisition delays or failure to integrate by FY26 end	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported completing the systems conversion in Q2; total deposits were $16.8 billion in Q2 and $16.9 billion in Q3. The conversion is a concrete integration milestone, with a modest sequential deposit increase following completion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.43

$4.61 → $4.43 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-25	$4.61	$852,619,800	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$4.61	$852,979,600	6 / 5
2026-07-27	$4.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	$4.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-29	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-30	$4.54	$848,939,800	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$4.48	$846,531,800	6 / 5
2026-08-01	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$4.48	$846,531,800	6 / 5
2026-08-03	$4.48	$846,531,800	6 / 5
2026-08-04	$4.48	$846,531,800	6 / 5
2026-08-05	$4.48	$846,531,800	6 / 5
2026-08-06	$4.48	$846,531,800	6 / 5
2026-08-07	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$4.48	$846,531,800	6 / 5
2026-08-09	$4.48	$846,531,800	6 / 5
2026-08-10	$4.48	$846,531,800	6 / 5
2026-08-11	$4.48	$846,531,800	6 / 5
2026-08-12	$4.48	$846,531,800	6 / 5
2026-08-13	$4.48	$846,531,800	6 / 5
2026-08-14	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-16	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-17	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-18	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-19	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-20	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-21	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-22	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-23	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-24	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-25	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-26	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-27	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-28	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-29	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-30	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-31	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-01	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-02	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-03	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-04	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-05	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-06	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-07	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-08	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-09	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-10	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-11	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-12	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-13	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-14	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-15	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-16	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$4.49	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$4.49	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$4.49	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$4.49	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$4.49	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$4.49	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$4.49	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$4.49	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$4.49	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$4.49	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$4.49	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$4.49	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$4.49	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$4.50	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$4.48	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-16	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-17	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-18	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-19	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-20	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-21	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-22	$4.47	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-23	$4.45	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-24	$4.43	Unavailable	5 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	2
2026-06-01	4	2
2026-07-01	4	2
2026-08-01	4	2
2026-09-01	4	2
2026-10-01	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 6

$46.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$25.30$50.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain steady dividends and share buybacksDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Increase EPS through operational efficiencyPublished status: Broken
Complete and integrate First Savings Financial Group acquisitionQualitative condition

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

First Merchants Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FRME is a regional bank with a multi-year thesis built on organic loan and deposit growth, capital returns, and integration execution. The thesis is intact this month, but management execution has been volatile and the broader sector backdrop is a headwind.

What's priced into First Merchants Corp.

Valuation is assessed as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is close to neutral. The priced-in signal is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent momentum improved, and the latest reported quarter showed organic loan growth, higher deposits, and continued share repurchases. Near term, a guidance cut is a key risk, while the recent earnings beat supports the current thesis; the evidence gives a 27% miss probability and calls the watch level quiet.

What First Merchants Corp. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued loan and deposit growth, completing the First Savings integration, and delivering on the repurchase program. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts would weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers could support Financials-sector momentum.