Reading FNB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FNB free→Reading FNB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FNB free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $18 FNB trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $20 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.97x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.42 → $0.42 (+0.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 21.9% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$105.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$222.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,575.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Net income is a key priority for FNB. Strong results would show growth progress.
Confirms:Q2 net income reported above $30 million, showing growth from Q1.
Disproves:Q2 net income is less than $25 million. This shows weak performance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FNB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS On May 15, 2026, David B. Mitchell, II, Chief Wholesale Banking Officer of F.N.B. Corporation (the “Company”), announced his intention to retire from the Company effective July 2, 2026. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersig…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FNB FNB Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing net income through strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies.
Improve cash flow from operating activities to support business operations and growth.
Continue to provide a stable dividend payout to shareholders.
Why it matters: If net income growth slows, it may show weaker performance in the sector.
Confirms:Q2 net income growth below 15% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 net income growth of 15% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: More cash flow means better financial health. It helps with future investments.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities exceeds $151M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities drops below $151M in Q2.
Why it matters: Earnings growth below this level may show weaker performance than last quarter.
Confirms:Q2 2026 earnings growth reported below 9.4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 earnings growth reported above 9.4% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin may show profit pressure from lower yields.
Confirms:Net interest margin drops below 3.20% in Q2.
Disproves:Net interest margin remains at or above 3.20% in Q2.
Why it matters: A high payout ratio may limit FNB's chance to invest in growth.
Confirms:Dividend payout ratio remains above 35% after Q2 earnings.
Disproves:Dividend payout ratio falls below 35% after Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans and how well it does.
Confirms one read:New leadership is appointed and aligns with company goals.
Confirms the other:Changes in leadership can create uncertainty. They may also cause problems with strategy.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for FNB.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is below the median of 13% in upcoming reports.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above the median of 13%.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may mean worse asset quality and credit risk management.
Confirms:Net charge-offs are above 0.20% of total average loans.
Disproves:Net charge-offs are below 0.20% of total average loans.
Why it matters: Weak loan growth could signal reduced demand and impact future earnings.
Confirms:Loan growth below 2% compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Loan growth of 2% or more compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows FNB is enhancing its operations and financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up by more than 10% from Q1.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities drops or stays flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A higher payout ratio may mean less money for growth and investment.
Confirms:Dividend payout ratio is above 31%.
Disproves:Dividend payout ratio is below 31%.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS' COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS Our independent lead director, William B. Campbell, who has been a director of F.N.B. Corporation since 1975, did not stand for re-election and retired from our Board of Directors effective May 6, 2026.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 16, 2026 , F.N.B. Corporation announced financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing our results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.
OTHER EVENTS On April 14, 2026, F.N.B. Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors increased the quarterly cash dividend on its common stock to $0.13 per share payable on June 15, 2026. The Company also announced that its Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program, authorizing the Company to repurchase up to $250 million of the Company’s outstanding shares of common stock. The new share repurchase program is in addition to the $50…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On October 16, 2025 , F.N.B. Corporation announced financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release announcing our results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.