FNB Corporation (FNB)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$18.180.00%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge FNB Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.88 → 1.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	484.7M
EPS	—	0.466
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	482.71M
EPS	—	0.432
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.87B
EPS	—	1.693
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.99B
EPS	—	1.9

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share at least $0.13 and $250 million buyback ongoing	The company raised dividends and started a $250 million buyback.	Intact	dividend falls below $0.12 or buyback program ends	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Cash from operating activities stays above $150 million next 4 quarters	Cash from operations improved to $151 million.	Intact	cash from operations falls below $100 million next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $258M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=150 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026258,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Diluted EPS grows to at least $1.73 in FY 2026	FNB grows earnings with net income rising to $137 million.	Broken	EPS falls below $1.56 in FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.42 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.73 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.42 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: adf58ce9-4839-49e7-89e6-669f8425de5f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.90

$1.89 → $1.90 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.99B

$2.01B → $1.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.89	$2,007,708,170	8 / 6
2026-07-25	$1.89	$2,007,708,170	8 / 6
2026-07-26	$1.89	$2,007,708,170	8 / 6
2026-07-27	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-07-28	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-07-29	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-07-30	$1.89	$2,007,708,170	8 / 6
2026-07-31	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-08-01	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-08-02	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-08-03	$1.89	$2,007,708,170	8 / 6
2026-08-04	$1.89	$2,007,708,170	8 / 6
2026-08-05	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-08-06	$1.89	$2,007,708,170	8 / 6
2026-08-07	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-08-08	$1.89	$2,007,708,170	8 / 6
2026-08-09	$1.89	$2,007,708,170	8 / 6
2026-08-10	$1.89	$2,007,708,170	8 / 6
2026-08-11	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-08-12	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-08-13	$1.87	$1,995,250,170	8 / 6
2026-08-14	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-08-15	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-08-16	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-08-17	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-08-18	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-08-19	$1.88	$2,007,630,433	7 / 5
2026-08-20	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-08-21	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-08-22	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-08-23	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-08-24	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-08-25	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-08-26	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-08-27	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-08-28	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-08-29	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-08-30	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-08-31	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-01	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-02	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-03	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-04	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-05	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-06	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-07	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-08	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-09	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-10	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-11	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-12	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-13	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-14	$1.87	$1,995,172,383	7 / 5
2026-09-15	$1.87	$1,989,552,918	7 / 5
2026-09-16	$1.87	$1,989,552,918	8 / 6
2026-09-17	$1.87	$1,989,552,918	8 / 6
2026-09-18	$1.87	$1,989,552,918	8 / 6
2026-09-19	$1.87	$1,989,552,918	8 / 6
2026-09-20	$1.87	$1,989,552,918	8 / 6
2026-09-21	$1.87	$1,989,552,918	8 / 6
2026-09-22	$1.87	$1,989,552,918	8 / 6
2026-09-23	$1.88	$1,992,458,346	8 / 6
2026-09-24	$1.88	$1,992,458,346	8 / 6
2026-09-25	$1.88	$1,992,458,346	8 / 6
2026-09-26	$1.88	$1,992,458,346	8 / 6
2026-09-27	$1.88	$1,992,458,346	8 / 6
2026-09-28	$1.88	$1,992,458,346	8 / 6
2026-09-29	$1.88	$1,992,458,346	8 / 6
2026-09-30	$1.88	$1,992,458,346	8 / 6
2026-10-01	$1.88	$1,992,458,346	8 / 6
2026-10-02	$1.88	$1,992,458,346	8 / 6
2026-10-03	$1.88	$1,992,458,346	8 / 6
2026-10-04	$1.88	$1,992,458,346	8 / 6
2026-10-05	$1.88	$1,992,458,346	8 / 6
2026-10-06	$1.88	$1,992,937,740	8 / 6
2026-10-07	$1.88	$1,992,937,740	8 / 6
2026-10-08	$1.90	$1,992,937,740	8 / 6
2026-10-09	$1.90	$1,992,937,740	8 / 6
2026-10-10	$1.90	$1,992,937,740	8 / 6
2026-10-11	$1.89	$1,990,080,597	8 / 6
2026-10-12	$1.89	$1,990,080,597	8 / 6
2026-10-13	$1.89	$1,990,080,597	8 / 6
2026-10-14	$1.89	$1,990,080,597	8 / 6
2026-10-15	$1.89	$1,990,080,597	8 / 6
2026-10-16	$1.89	$1,990,080,597	8 / 6
2026-10-17	$1.89	$1,990,080,597	8 / 6
2026-10-18	$1.89	$1,990,080,597	8 / 6
2026-10-19	$1.89	$1,990,080,597	8 / 6
2026-10-20	$1.89	$1,990,080,597	8 / 6
2026-10-21	$1.90	$1,992,168,776	8 / 6
2026-10-22	$1.90	$1,993,486,490	8 / 6
2026-10-23	$1.90	$1,993,486,490	8 / 6
2026-10-24	$1.90	$1,993,486,490	8 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	0
2026-06-01	8	0
2026-07-01	8	1
2026-08-01	7	1
2026-09-01	7	2
2026-10-01	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 21

$20.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$11.00$22.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share at least $0.13 and $250 million buyback ongoingDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Cash from operating activities stays above $150 million next 4 quartersCash from operations: $258M
Diluted EPS grows to at least $1.73 in FY 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

FNB Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FNB is a regional bank with a measured, relationship-led growth profile, rather than a high-growth story. Its multi-year view is intact, supported by loan and deposit growth, though earnings quality and recent performance remain neutral.

What's priced into FNB Corporation

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding, though the evidence does not provide a precise market forecast.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings were in line, and the risk label has moved from moderate to low. Average loans and deposits grew from 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q3, while reported revenue and net income also increased over the periods provided; execution on the technology-focused growth priority is still mixed. The main near-term risk is a guidance cut, alongside the possibility that rate cuts weigh on the Financials sector.

What FNB Corporation hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on continued organic loan and deposit growth and on translating the technology-focused model into steadier revenue and earnings progress. Near term, a guidance cut or falling rates would be unfavorable, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.