Reading FMNB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FMNB free→Reading FMNB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FMNB free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, FMNB is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 FMNB trades at 9× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $17 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.38 → $0.37 (-1.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$271.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,668.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
Valuation changed. It rose to "inexpensive" from "fair." Risk remained moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Recent financial performance is strong.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact consumer spending and loan demand. This affects Farmers National Banc Corp.'s growth outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FMNB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, Farmers National Banc Corp. (the “Company”) announced earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release and certain financial information for this period is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein. Also on April 22, 2026, the Company first provided investors with a supplemental presentation regarding first quarter earnings and other current financial information, attached as…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FMNB Farmers National Banc Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to expand its net interest margin by 25 basis points in Q2 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a target to expand its net interest margin by 25 basis points in Q2 2026. Financials show a net income increase from $14.6M in 2025-Q4 to $16.3M in 2026-Q1, indicating potential for margin improvement. However, the specific impact on net interest margin remains to be seen.
“The Company expects the net interest margin to expand by approximately 25 basis points in the second quarter of 2026.”
The company is focused on creating long-term value for shareholders in 2026 and beyond.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company has expressed a focus on creating long-term shareholder value. While net income increased from $14.6M in 2025-Q4 to $16.3M in 2026-Q1, the broader impact on long-term value creation is not yet clear. The trajectory remains to be fully demonstrated.
“I am excited about the direction we are headed and the opportunities ahead to create long-term value for our shareholders in 2026 and beyond.”
Why it matters: Interest rates can change how many loans people want. This affects how much money Farmers National Banc Corp makes. It is important to watch these changes.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points or more.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact Farmers National Banc Corp. and its peers.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 16, 2026, at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”) of Farmers National Banc Corp. (the “Company”), the shareholders of the Company approved the Company’s 2026 Equity Incentive Plan (the “Plan”). The Board of Directors of the Company previously adopted the Plan on February 24, 2026, subject to shareholder appro…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, Farmers National Banc Corp. (the “Company”) announced earnings for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release and certain financial information for this period is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein. Also on January 28, 2026, the Company first provided investors with a supplemental presentation regarding fourth quarter earnings and other current financial information, att…
and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of the Company under the Securities Act, except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in the filing. Important Additional Information About the Merger. In connection with the proposed Merger, the Company has filed relevant materials with the SEC, including a Registration Statement on Form S-4 that contains a definitive joint proxy statement/prospectus of the Company and Middlefield (the “joint…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 22, 2025, Farmers National Banc Corp. (the “Company”) and Middlefield Banc Corp, an Ohio corporation (“Middlefield”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”), pursuant to which Middlefield will merge with and into the Company (the “Merger”), with the Company as the surviving entity in the Merger. Promptly following the consummation of the Merger, it is expected that The Middlefield Banking Company, the bankin…