Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$15.69+0.19%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Farmers National Banc Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	71.15M
EPS	—	0.43
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	269.75M
EPS	—	1.573
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	289.85M
EPS	—	1.76

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve EPS of at least $0.40 in Q3 2026 and $1.62 in FY 2026	Analysts expect stable earnings with EPS around $1.62 in 2026.	Improving	EPS falls below $0.40 in Q3 2026 or below $1.50 in FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.39 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.40 Q3 2026, >= $1.62 FY 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.39 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a114dff2-7409-4cdd-a916-e6a1254f6c4b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Create long-term shareholder value in 2026 and beyond	The bank is focused on creating long-term shareholder value.	Intact	Shareholder returns decline materially over 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income increased from $13.9 million in 2025-Q2 to $23.0 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting profitable growth. Management's statements and financial results indicate progress toward long-term shareholder value creation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Expand net interest margin by 25 basis points in Q2 2026	The company aims to expand its net interest margin by 25 basis points in Q2 2026.	Intact	net interest margin expansion falls below 15 basis points in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net interest margin grew from 2.91% in 2025-Q2 to 3.44% in 2026-Q2, reflecting the impact of the Middlefield acquisition and higher yields. The trajectory is delivering as management expected with margin expansion realized. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	1
2026-06-01	2	1
2026-07-01	2	1
2026-08-01	2	1
2026-09-01	2	1
2026-10-01	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve EPS of at least $0.40 in Q3 2026 and $1.62 in FY 2026Diluted EPS: $0.39 per share
Create long-term shareholder value in 2026 and beyondDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Expand net interest margin by 25 basis points in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Farmers National Banc Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regional bank investment with a value tilt, rather than a high-growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and recent performance is rated neutral.

What's priced into Farmers National Banc Corp.

FMNB is described as cheap versus peers, and the evidence labels its valuation as justified rather than fragile. The snapshot does not show a meaningful gap between expectations and the valuation, so the case rests more on execution than on a clear expectations mismatch.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, margin expansion, Middlefield integration, and commercial lending are progressing as management planned; commercial lending fundings accelerated in the latest quarter. The next core technology conversion is scheduled for late 2026-Q3, while a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk; the sector backdrop is also a headwind.

What Farmers National Banc Corp. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on completing the conversion, sustaining margin gains, and turning stronger commercial lending activity into durable business growth. Guidance cuts or rate cuts could pressure the business, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.