Reading FIBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FIBK free→Reading FIBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FIBK free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from FIBK and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.52. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 FIBK trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $37 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.90x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.64 → $0.64 (+0.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 13% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$88.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$261.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,686.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets can lead to worse loan quality. This may cause losses.
Confirms:Non-performing assets rise above $162.5 million in Q2.
Disproves:Non-performing assets drop or stay below $162.5 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FIBK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Pursuant to the director retirement policy set forth in the Corporate Governance Guidelines of First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (the “Company”), on May 27, 2026, each of Ms. Patricia L. Moss and Messrs. David L. Jahnke and Stephen M. Lacy, each having reached the retirement age of 72, was deemed to have retired and resigned automatically from the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FIBK First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue executing the share repurchase program with an additional $150 million authorized.
Continue maintaining the dividend at $0.47 per share as part of capital allocation strategy.
Maintain focus on stabilizing operational income amidst changing market conditions.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows confidence in cash flow and financial health.
Confirms:Dividend remains at $0.47 per share for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Dividend is cut below $0.47 per share for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Recent changes in leaders may affect how the company does. Stability matters.
Confirms one read:Good operational metrics after the CEO change.
Confirms the other:Bad operational metrics after the CEO change.
Why it matters: Completing this sale may change how First Interstate uses its capital. It could also affect its market position.
Confirms one read:The branch sale closes and is reported in a press release.
Confirms the other:The branch sale is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Stable operational income shows the company can manage costs well. A decline could signal issues.
Confirms:Operating income goes up each year. It stays above $77.5M.
Disproves:Operating income drops below $66.4M year over year.
Why it matters: A rise in net charge-offs would signal credit quality issues and impact earnings.
Confirms:Net charge-offs exceed $5 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Net charge-offs remain below $5 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A stable or lower net interest margin may show problems with loan yields and profits.
Confirms:Q2 net interest margin remains at or below 3.41%.
Disproves:Q2 net interest margin rises above 3.41%.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may indicate broader sector challenges. This could impact stock performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth stays above the median of 12% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth drops below the median of 12% year over year.
Why it matters: A big drop in deposits may mean customers are unhappy. It could also show competition.
Confirms:Total deposits decrease more than $250 million in Q2.
Disproves:Total deposits remain stable or increase in Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in noninterest income may show problems in fee services and total revenue.
Confirms:Noninterest income was below $40 million in Q2.
Disproves:Noninterest income stayed above $40 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Ending the share buyback program may mean management trusts the company's value.
Confirms:Management says the $300 million share buyback program is done by Q3.
Disproves:Management extends the share repurchase program beyond Q3.
Why it matters: Progress on the share buyback program may show management's trust in the company.
Confirms:Completion of at least $150 million in share repurchases by the next earnings call.
Disproves:No big share buybacks reported by the next earnings call.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 11, 2026, First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that the employment as Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer of the Company (“COO”) and its wholly owned bank subsidiary by Ms. Kristina Robbins was terminated, without cause, effective immediately, and that Ms. Robbins employment with the Company would be…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. Neither the information included or incorporated by reference under this Item 2.02, nor the press release furnished herewith, shall be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 1…
Other Events. On April 29, 2026, the Company also announced that the Board of Directors of the Company declared, on April 28, 2026, a dividend of $0.47 per share, that is payable May 21, 2026 to shareholders of record of the Company as of May 11, 2026.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall neither be deemed filed for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall such information or exhibit be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K contains “forward-looking statements” within the mean…