First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (FIBK)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$36.78-0.27%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge First Interstate BancSystem, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.85 → 2.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	249.81M
EPS	—	0.7
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	988.18M
EPS	—	2.82
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.01B
EPS	—	2.886

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend maintained at $0.47 per share	It keeps dividend steady at $0.47 per share.	Intact	Dividend cut below $0.47 per share	Dividend per share: $0.47 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.47 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20260.47 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 776d9b15-b0c3-4f29-a5da-6c6d28b3d7da. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied transcript quarters, with the declared dividend remaining $0.47 per share in each. Net income was $62.2 million in 2026-Q3, compared with $83.9 million in 2026-Q2. The dividend commitment was maintained; earnings were lower in the latest quarter, so the disclosures show consistency of the payout rather than evidence of increased capacity. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Share repurchases of at least $84 million in Q1 2026	The bank repurchases shares actively, buying $84 million in Q1 2026.	Intact	Repurchases fall below $50 million in Q1 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Profit margin near 23% in FY 2026	Profit margins remain stable near 23%.	Intact	Profit margin falls below 21% in FY 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $835 million in FY 2026	First Interstate BancSystem grows revenue to about $835 million in 2026.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $785 million in FY 2026	Revenue: $270.6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$835 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026270,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 776d9b15-b0c3-4f29-a5da-6c6d28b3d7da. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.89

$3.00 → $2.89 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.01B

Unavailable → $1.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.00	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-25	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-26	$2.96	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	$2.96	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-28	$2.96	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-29	$2.85	$1,022,224,540	7 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-31	$2.85	$1,022,224,540	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$2.85	$1,022,224,540	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.85	$1,022,224,540	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.85	$1,022,224,540	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.85	$1,022,224,540	7 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.85	$1,022,224,540	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$2.85	$1,022,224,540	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.85	$1,022,224,540	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-11	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	$2.85	$1,012,241,210	7 / 6
2026-08-13	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-16	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-17	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-18	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-19	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-20	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-21	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-22	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-23	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-24	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-25	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-26	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-27	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-28	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-29	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-30	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-31	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-01	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-02	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-03	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-04	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-05	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-06	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-07	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-08	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-09	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-10	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-11	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-12	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-13	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-14	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-15	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-16	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$2.85	$1,011,632,752	6 / 5
2026-09-25	$2.85	$1,011,632,752	6 / 5
2026-09-26	$2.85	$1,011,632,752	6 / 5
2026-09-27	$2.85	$1,011,632,752	6 / 5
2026-09-28	$2.85	$1,011,632,752	6 / 5
2026-09-29	$2.85	$1,011,632,752	6 / 5
2026-09-30	$2.85	$1,011,632,752	6 / 5
2026-10-01	$2.85	$1,011,704,181	6 / 5
2026-10-02	$2.85	$1,011,761,324	6 / 5
2026-10-03	$2.85	$1,011,761,324	6 / 5
2026-10-04	$2.85	$1,011,761,324	6 / 5
2026-10-05	$2.85	$1,011,761,324	6 / 5
2026-10-06	$3.86	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-07	$3.86	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-08	$3.86	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-09	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-10	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-11	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-12	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-13	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-14	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-15	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-16	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-17	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-18	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-19	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-20	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-21	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-22	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-23	$3.85	$1,011,431,823	6 / 5
2026-10-24	$2.89	$1,013,803,251	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	5	2
2026-06-01	1	5	2
2026-07-01	1	5	2
2026-08-01	1	5	3
2026-09-01	1	5	3
2026-10-01	1	5	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend maintained at $0.47 per shareDividend per share: $0.47 per share
Share repurchases of at least $84 million in Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Profit margin near 23% in FY 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue reaches about $835 million in FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regional financial business with a multi-year thesis tied to franchise growth, operating efficiency, and capital returns. The thesis is currently intact, though the latest earnings miss and a sharp decline in company momentum add near-term caution.

What's priced into First Interstate BancSystem, Inc.

FIBK is described as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and a valuation tag of justified. The evidence points to low fragility, but does not show that low peer valuation removes the risk of weaker guidance or continued earnings misses.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, the latest quarter showed higher net interest income and margin, alongside modestly lower expenses, while the company also reported an earnings miss. Repurchases continue, but they have contributed to a lower capital ratio; broader relationship-growth results are not established in the evidence.

What First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. hinges on

The near-term thesis would weaken if management cuts guidance or if falling rates weigh on the financial sector. It would gain support if financial-sector peers continue to report strong earnings and raise guidance, while FIBK sustains margin and interest-income progress.