Reading FHB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FHB free→Reading FHB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FHB free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, but compared with sector peers, FHB is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 FHB trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $28 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.55 → $0.58 (+5.1% / 30d). 9 raised, 0 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$84.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$223.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,467.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from full to fair. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, and risk was moderate. The confidence level is medium, indicating some uncertainty in the current assessment.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it signals a weakening trend in the financial sector.
Confirms:First Hawaiian reports revenue growth below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above 12% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FHB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 24, 2026, First Hawaiian, Inc. (together with its consolidated subsidiary, “First Hawaiian”) reported its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of First Hawaiian’s press release containing this information is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. All information provided in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FHB First Hawaiian, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 1.7% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a consistent dividend payout of $0.26 per share.
Focus on strategies to enhance net income over time.
Improve cash flow generated from operating activities.
Why it matters: Increasing net income would show that the company is on track with its growth goals.
Confirms:Q2 net income exceeds $67.8 million reported in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 net income falls below $67.8 million.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is running well. This helps support growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up by 10% or more from last quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations goes up by less than 10% from last quarter.
Why it matters: A rising efficiency ratio means costs are going up compared to income. This can hurt profits.
Confirms:Efficiency ratio exceeds 57.8% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Efficiency ratio gets better or stays under 57.8%.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal challenges for First Hawaiian and its peers.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: More loans show strong demand. This helps revenue and fits with management's growth goals.
Confirms:Total loans exceed $14.4 billion in the next quarter.
Disproves:Total loans decline or stay below $14.4 billion.
Why it matters: More people are filing for unemployment. This could show that the economy is weak. It might affect how well First Hawaiian does.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay below 250,000.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:The board declares a dividend of $0.26 per share for Q2.
Disproves:The board reduces the dividend below $0.26 per share.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 20, 2026, Mr. Alan H. Arizumi, Vice Chair, Wealth Management Group of First Hawaiian, Inc. (the “Company”) and First Hawaiian Bank (the “Bank”), announced his intention to retire from his positions with the Company and the Bank, effective March 31, 2026. For more information, reference is made to the Company’s press release dated February 23, 2026, a copy of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 30, 2026, First Hawaiian, Inc. (together with its consolidated subsidiary, “First Hawaiian”) reported its earnings for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of First Hawaiian’s press release containing this information is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. All information provided in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deeme…