First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$25.34-3.02%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge First Hawaiian, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.51 → 2.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	239.04M
EPS	—	0.584
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	927.04M
EPS	—	2.319
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.46B
EPS	—	2.548

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operating activities at least $159.7 million in 2026-Q1	Cash from operations rose sharply to $159.7M in 2026-Q1.	Under Pressure	cash from operations falls below $36.7 million in any quarter	Cash from operations: $13.187M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $159.7 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 3, 202613,187,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend per share at $0.26	The company keeps dividends steady at $0.26 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.26	Dividend per share: $0.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.26 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 3, 20260.26 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: caac766a-88b7-44ba-bd26-26889a884954. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase net income to at least $67.8 million in 2026-Q1	First Hawaiian grows net income steadily, up from $59.2M to $67.8M in one year.	Intact	net income falls below $59.2 million in any quarter	Net income: $73.375M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $67.8 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 3, 202673,375,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: caac766a-88b7-44ba-bd26-26889a884954. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.55

$2.53 → $2.55 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.46B

Unavailable → $1.46B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.53	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-25	$2.53	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-27	$2.53	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-29	$2.52	$1,452,646,480	8 / 5
2026-07-30	$2.52	$1,452,646,480	8 / 5
2026-07-31	$2.53	$1,457,948,400	9 / 6
2026-08-01	$2.51	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-02	$2.53	$1,457,948,400	9 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.53	$1,457,948,400	9 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.53	$1,457,948,400	9 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.53	$1,457,948,400	9 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.53	$1,457,948,400	9 / 6
2026-08-07	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-08	$2.53	$1,457,948,400	9 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.53	$1,457,948,400	9 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-11	$2.53	$1,457,948,400	9 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.53	$1,457,948,400	9 / 6
2026-08-13	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-14	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-15	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-16	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-17	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-18	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-19	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-20	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-21	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-22	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-23	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-24	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-25	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-26	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-27	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-28	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-29	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-30	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-08-31	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-01	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-02	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-03	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-04	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-05	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-06	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-07	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-08	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-09	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-10	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-11	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-12	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-13	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-14	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-15	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-16	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-17	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-18	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-19	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-20	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-21	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-22	$2.51	$1,460,531,857	7 / 5
2026-09-23	$2.51	$1,463,012,286	7 / 5
2026-09-24	$2.51	$1,463,012,286	7 / 5
2026-09-25	$2.51	$1,463,012,286	7 / 5
2026-09-26	$2.51	$1,463,012,286	7 / 5
2026-09-27	$2.51	$1,463,012,286	7 / 5
2026-09-28	$2.51	$1,463,012,286	7 / 5
2026-09-29	$2.51	$1,463,012,286	7 / 5
2026-09-30	$2.51	$1,463,012,286	7 / 5
2026-10-01	$2.52	$1,460,685,750	8 / 6
2026-10-02	$2.51	$1,455,392,022	8 / 6
2026-10-03	$2.51	$1,455,392,022	8 / 6
2026-10-04	$2.51	$1,455,392,022	8 / 6
2026-10-05	$2.51	$1,455,392,022	8 / 6
2026-10-06	$2.52	$1,456,541,897	8 / 6
2026-10-07	$2.52	$1,456,541,897	8 / 6
2026-10-08	$2.53	$1,456,541,897	8 / 6
2026-10-09	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	8 / 6
2026-10-10	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	8 / 6
2026-10-11	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	7 / 5
2026-10-12	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	7 / 5
2026-10-13	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	7 / 5
2026-10-14	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	7 / 5
2026-10-15	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	7 / 5
2026-10-16	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	7 / 5
2026-10-17	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	7 / 5
2026-10-18	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	7 / 5
2026-10-19	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	7 / 5
2026-10-20	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	7 / 5
2026-10-21	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	7 / 5
2026-10-22	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	7 / 5
2026-10-23	$2.54	$1,456,541,897	7 / 5
2026-10-24	$2.55	$1,459,810,872	7 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	0	6	4
2026-06-01	0	6	4
2026-07-01	0	7	4
2026-08-01	1	7	4
2026-09-01	1	6	4
2026-10-01	1	7	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities at least $159.7 million in 2026-Q1Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain dividend per share at $0.26Dividend per share: $0.26 per share
Increase net income to at least $67.8 million in 2026-Q1Net income: $73.375M

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

First Hawaiian, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FHB is a regional bank with a multi-year view tied to steady customer deposits and successful expansion into the mainland. The thesis is intact, but recent performance is mixed and the risk assessment has risen from low to moderate.

What's priced into First Hawaiian, Inc.

FHB is valued cheaply versus peers, and the pricing model indicates expectations sit below its fundamentals. Pricing fragility is low, though this does not remove business risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been in line, and the latest quarter showed a modest deposit recovery after a larger decline in the prior quarter. The planned TriCo acquisition has brought merger costs, but the supplied evidence does not yet show completed integration or its financial benefits; sector conditions remain a headwind.

What First Hawaiian, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends in part on FHB completing the acquisition and turning its mainland expansion into financial benefits, while keeping deposits steady. Near term, a guidance cut or lower rates would be unfavorable; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the broader backdrop.