Reading FFIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FFIN free→Reading FFIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FFIN free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 the market pays 18× p/e — above the 12× p/e peer median but in line with its own 21× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $23 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 48% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.23x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.50 (+1.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 41.7% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$255.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,337.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A confirmed dividend increase shows that the company has strong finances. It also shows a focus on shareholder value.
Confirms:The company pays a cash dividend of $0.22 per share as announced.
Disproves:The company cancels or lowers the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FFIN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION Attached as an exhibit to this Form 8-K is the earnings release for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 of First Financial Bankshares, Inc.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FFIN First Financial Bankshares | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to increase deposit growth to support loan and securities expansion.
Management plans to expand loans and securities as part of their growth strategy for 2026.
Management aims to enhance investment yields as part of their financial strategy.
Why it matters: Earnings performance shows the company's financial health and growth path.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share exceeds $0.50, showing strong financial performance.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share drops below $0.45, which may signal problems.
Why it matters: Loan growth over 6% shows strong demand and good lending practices.
Confirms:Loans grow more than 6% year over year as reported in Q2 results.
Disproves:Loan growth falls below 4% year over year in Q2 results.
Why it matters: A rise in net interest margin means better investment returns and profits.
Confirms:Net interest margin improves beyond 3.86% as reported in Q2 results.
Disproves:Net interest margin declines below 3.74% in Q2 results.
Why it matters: Healthy deposit growth shows customers trust the bank. This helps the bank lend more.
Confirms:Q2 deposit growth reported above 3% year over year.
Disproves:Deposit growth reported below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher investment yields can help the bank make more money. It shows better asset management.
Confirms:Q2 investment yields reported above 4%.
Disproves:Investment yields are below 3%.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may show bigger economic problems for First Financial.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above 13% year over year.
Why it matters: More people are filing for unemployment. This could show problems in the economy. It may hurt the bank's performance.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000 for the week.
Disproves:Unemployment claims stay below 250,000 for the week.
Why it matters: Higher noninterest expenses may mean rising costs. This can affect how much money the company makes.
Confirms:Noninterest expenses for Q2 are more than $76 million.
Disproves:Noninterest expenses for Q2 are less than $76 million.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS CEO Transition On January 27, 2026, the Boards of Directors of First Financial Bankshares, Inc. (“First Financial”) and First Financial Bank (the “Bank”, and together with First Financial, the “Company”) announced the promotion of David Bailey to President and Chief Executive Officer of both entities effective February 1, 2026. Mr. Bailey succeeds F…